Outlook of Debt Market for 2nd half of the Year 2022

 

Outlook of Debt Market for 2nd half of the Year 2022

We would begin the topic by covering basic concepts relevant to the readers for a better understanding of this article.

Sometimes, banks may need liquidity to take care of an unprecedented spurt in the withdrawal of funds by their account holders, or to maintain the prescribed limit of the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) and Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR). In such situations, banks may have to take loans from RBI by keeping Government Securities (G-Secs) as collateral. At the end of the loan term i.e. either overnight or 7 days, the bank repurchases the Government Securities from RBI by repaying the loan amount along with a pre-decided interest rate called Repo Rate – which is the interest rate at which the RBI lends money to the banks. In case, the bank defaults in paying the borrowed money back to the RBI, the latter sells the G-Secs that were kept as collateral.

Regulating the Repo rate is one of the tools available with RBI to regulate inflation (called Hawkish monitory policy) and growth in the economy (called Dovish monitory policy).

Consider a situation where the economy is facing high inflation; the RBI will keep increasing the Repo rate with an objective to curtail part of available liquidity in the hands of consumers. 

With the increase in the Repo rate; banks have to pay more interest to borrow money from RBI. Banks in turn would raise the lending rate on the loans given to their borrowers. This move, leaves consumers with less money thus, reducing their purchasing power, leading to a decrease in the demand for goods and services - making them cheaper; eventually cooling down the inflation.

The rationale behind RBI’s decision to increase Repo Rate: Based on the assessment of the economic situation, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the RBI, decided to increase the policy repo rate under the Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF). The decision to tame the inflation was made in light of growing inflation, the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia, high crude prices, and global commodity shortages. Besides, US Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 50 basis points to 0.75%-1% in the May 2022 meeting, thus impacting the markets across the globe.

The RBI wants to keep inflation under control, which is already close to 7%, as well as manage and monitor money flow into the banking sector. Therefore, RBI may continue to further hike Repo rates to reach the level of 6 to 6.50% by March 2023.

 

Effect of rising Repo Rate on Fixed Deposit:  The rate hike is welcomed by the deposit holders of banks and corporates, as fixed deposits have become an attractive option to invest with surges in interest rates.

 

Effect of rising Repo Rate on Debt Mutual Funds: Assume that a 10-year Government bond was issued at a face value of Rs. 100 at 8% interest (coupon) rate, which implies the yield in this bond is Rs. 8/-

If the Repo rate increases and the lending rate is increased to for example 10%, that would mean that the yield for the new bond issued will be Rs. 10 /-. This will reduce the demand for the 8% bond since the 10% coupon rate promises better returns.

Therefore, to make the former more attractive, the face value of the bond will be decreased to, say, Rs. 90/-. So, the yield for this bond now becomes 8.89% (8/90*100), which is higher than the original- making it more attractive.

Hence, an increase in interest rate is directly proportional to the yield and inversely proportional to the face value. This means that the Bond prices are inversely correlated to yield.  When interest rates and the yield goes up, bond prices decline (and vice-versa) resulting in mark-to-market losses for debt mutual funds.

After the RBI's announcement, the 10-year bond yield, which had been steadily rising in recent months, inched up to 7.40%. As a result, the net asset value (NAV) of debt mutual funds has fallen sharply, particularly for medium and long-duration funds. An increase in interest rates will have a negative impact on debt funds with a longer duration.

Conversely, a decrease in the Repo rate may make the debt schemes more attractive as it may increase the NAV of the debt schemes. The margin of gain will depend on the average maturity and the securities the scheme holds.

Effect of rising Repo Rate on Equity Market:  The Equity market typically goes down with the RBI's policy rate hike.  When there is plenty of liquidity, the equity market does well. If the RBI tightens the interest rates, the stock market is adversely impacted. Following the RBI's action, banks tend to raise their lending rates, thus making loans more expensive. As a result, companies will have to pay a higher interest rate to borrow money, indirectly impacting their liquidity position, and leading to a decrease in equity fund returns.

What should an investor do?

 

Looking at the inflation of 7%, the terminal Repo rate should stand somewhere at 6-6.5%. Therefore, investing in Corporate Fixed Deposits (choose only AAA-rated CFDs) would offer a better interest rate over the bank fixed deposit.

Invest in debt mutual funds if you have a large investment portfolio. Debt mutual funds are taxed at 20% with indexation if you hold the money for more than three years. If you are investing for less than three years, they don’t have any tax advantages and are taxed like bank deposits at applicable income tax rates.

If you decide to invest for three years or more, look at investing in the Corporate bond funds, and Banking & PSU funds. Also, investing in the Target Maturity Funds (TMFs) is a good option, as you need not worry if held until maturity, as are locked in at the yield at the time of investing.

 

Note on TMFs: These are passive debt funds that track an underlying bond index. Thus, the portfolio of such funds comprises bonds that are part of the underlying bond index, and these bonds have maturities in-line with the fund’s stated maturity. The bonds in the portfolio are held to maturity and all interest payments received during the holding period are reinvested in the fund. Thus, Target Maturity bond funds operate in an accrual mode like FMPs. However, unlike FMPs, TMFs are open-ended in nature and are offered either as target maturity debt index funds or target maturity bond ETFs. Thus, TMFs offer greater liquidity than FMPs.

TMFs are currently mandated to invest in government securities, PSU bonds, and SDLs (State Development Loans), thus, carrying lower default risk compared to other debt funds.

 

Author

Ajit Singh

Founder

Graded Financial Services | Quick Turtle | AskCred

Email: ajit@gradedfinancialservices.com

Shimmering Gold

 

Shimmering Gold 

After China, India is the second-biggest gold consumer in the world. However, India fulfills most of its gold demand through imports, and it is largely driven by the jewelry industry. India imported the highest quantity of gold in the last 10 years in 2021. The imports of gold in May 2022 jumped by almost nine times to $7.7 billion compared to a year ago.

However, the year 2022 has brought uncertainty to market players who are trying to assess the implication of higher interest rates on economic growth, in the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine fight and the China- Taiwan conflict taking shape for war.

The gold price had a disappointing performance so far considering the strong uptrend in most commodities. Gold witnessed mixed trade in the first half of the year and has registered near 1% decline.

The central government decided to curb the import of the precious metal by hiking the import duty on bullion from 7.5% to 12.5% on 1^st July 2022 this year, amid the widening trade deficit, and the rupee taking nose-diving to Rs.80 to US$.  Gold also attracts a 2.5% Agriculture Infrastructure Development Cess (AIDC), adding up total duty of 15%. However, one may recall that last year the government cut the import tax to 7.5% to strengthen the domestic market. So, a hike of 7.5% on import duty can be termed as a reversal to maintain the balance. 

Considering that we meet domestic demand by way of gold import; such a step may lead to a proportionate rise in the price of domestic gold by around Rs.2000/10gm, factoring in international gold prices which are trading with a slightly negative bias. With domestic prices surging, demand is likely to take a hit at a time when the country is already grappling with high inflation.

Impact on Gold consumers of India:

Since the onset of the Coronavirus pandemic, gold prices escalated significantly in India. In March 2020, the gold rate was between Rs. 41,000 and Rs. 43,000 per 10 grams, making a historic high of Rs. 56,000 in August 2020. Currently, it is around Rs 53,300 at the time of writing this blog.

Higher prices due to duty hikes, slower economic activity, and tightening liquidity conditions due to interest rate hikes may impact gold demand significantly. The import duty hike will lead to a rise in the prices of gold jewelry in the country. With the GST rate hike on cut and polished diamonds from 0.25% to 1.5% from July 18, jewelry will most likely get dearer.
The move may affect exports too, which in May 2022  witnessed a year-on-year growth of 20% (Source: Gem and Jewelry Export Promotion Council).

Consumers consider gold as a hedge against inflation. However, this may not be the right time to invest in gold (SIP through gold ETF continues to be an exception), but, move the funds to be invested to sector-specific equities, Mutual Funds (via SIP route), and Corporate fixed deposits of AAA-rated companies which are giving attractive interest upto 7.40% p.a for 36month tenure.

 

Author

Thakur Ajit Singh

Co-Founder

Graded Financial Services | Quick Turtle | AskCred

Email: gradedfinserv@gmail.com

 

Invest Wise: Equity Market in 2nd half of the Year 2022

 

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 Invest Wise: Equity Market in 2^nd half of the Year 2022. 

Equity sentiment has been bearish, resulting in the worst annual start in the year 2022 for equities in 100 years.

The domestic equity market has witnessed a sharp correction in the first half of the year 2022. Benchmark indices BSE Sensex and Nifty50 have dropped more than 10% between January and June 2022. The fall in BSE midcap index has been steeper, and BSE smallcaps index has dropped over 16%. The Reuters poll of 30 equity strategists, conducted 13-24 May 2022, forecast the BSE Sensex to recoup less than half of its recent losses and gain only 3.2% to 56,000 by the end of 2022 from 54,288 points.

We have many challenges to tackle viz. high inflation, restoring the strength of Indian Rupee from its historical fall against US$, bridging the gap of burgeoning trade deficit, restoring the confidence of FPIs, and creating investment friendly atmosphere for FDI- which is a more stable and long-term investment.

Few more rate hikes are expected, making consumer loans dearer, which would adversely impact demand, in concurrence impacting GDP numbers. While we have yet no site on Russia – Ukraine war to end; China- Taiwan war is looming large, which if happens, would drift the already struggling world economy further away from revival.  Being a large importer of oil; the Indian economy is vulnerable to the recent increase in oil prices– which might take some more time to cool, thus, building further pressure on rising inflation, and depreciating Indian Currency.

Indian equities often underperform emerging markets historically in periods of high oil prices. Besides, market valuations are still higher than pre-pandemic levels. Valuations are susceptible to heightened global uncertainties. A combination of a quantitative tightening by a series of rate hikes, leading to a tighter liquidity situation, and commodity inflation would continue to exert pressure on asset prices.

Though the Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) outflows from India exceeded USD 30 billion in the first half of 2022, however, during that flight, the domestic investors did a balancing act by investing in Indian equities, showing their confidence in India’s growth story.

The data shows that Mutual Fund companies had 13.46 crore folios in June 2022 compared to 12.95 crore in March 2022, an increase of 51 lakh over the previous three months. The domestic MF industry's average AUM grew 19% to Rs 38.37 trn in FY22. Strong inflows into equity and hybrid schemes coupled with sustained inflows through the Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) contributed to the growth in assets. The assets under management (AUM) for SIP at the end of March 2022 were Rs 5,76,358.30 crore. showing that the retail investors kept investing despite the market's turbulence, to take advantage of Rupee Cost Averaging with the Power of Compounding.

India's GDP growth forecast is projected to be 7 % plus for the year, making it one of the fastest growing economies in the world. GST collections, Credit offtake, and Consumption numbers are showing an uptick. Therefore, the Indian stock market is likely to moderately stabilize in the second half of 2022. A mid-to-high single-digit growth rate is expected for S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) in 2022, with J.P. Morgan’s estimates at $225 (vs. consensus $229.58).

It would be right to strategically buy the dips and allocate funds in select sectors like IT, banking, and consumer space where valuations have become attractive. Also, in these uncertain times, make Mutual Fund SIPs your preferred vehicle to take exposure in the equity market, by investing in a combination of Top Rated Mutual Fund schemes viz. Large Cap, Mid Cap, Small Cap, Multi-Cap, and Hybrid funds.

 

Author

Ajit Singh

Co-Founder

Graded Financial Services | Quick Turtle | AskCred

Email : gradedfinserv@gmail.com | Cell: 81698 10833

Rs 20 Lakh Crore Kite

Rs 20 Lakh Crore Kite 

PM Narendra Modi announced a Rs 20-lakh-crore stimulus package, equivalent to about 10% of India’s GDP, aimed at making the country self-reliant and reviving the stalled economy. Details of the plan, dubbed the Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyaan, will be unveiled by finance minister Mrs. Nirmala Sitharaman today evening at 4pm.

The package is seen as a government attempt to check the world's fifth-largest economy hurtling towards its first full-year contraction in four decades. According to estimates, lockdown may have led to 12.2 Crore people losing jobs and consumer demand evaporating.

The package will focus on land, labor, liquidity and laws, and will cater to various sectors including the cottage industries, micro, small & medium enterprises (MSMEs), the working class, middle class and industry, among others. He said the package will also focus on empowering the poor, laborers and migrant workers, both in the organized and unorganized sectors. It will seek to increase efficiency and ensure quality.

As part of the package, Mr. Modi hinted at sops for the middle class and Indian corporate as well as changes in customs duties on imports to make Indian products competitive. This could mean lowering of import duties on raw materials needed for products manufactured in India, as well as higher import duties on finished products to ensure Make in India becomes successful.

The Rs 20 lakh Crore package includes Rs 1.7 lakh crore package of free food grains to poor and cash to poor women and elderly, which was already announced by Finance Minister Mrs. Nirmala Sitharaman, along with the Reserve Bank's liquidity measures and interest rate cuts. While the March stimulus was 0.8 per cent of GDP, RBI's cut in interest rates and liquidity boosting measures totaled to 3.2 per cent of the GDP (about Rs 6.5 lakh crore).

The exact details of the Rs 20 lakh Crore economic package hinted at by Prime Minister Narendra Modi are not known yet, but a plain reading of the number hints at more government borrowings and possible debt monetization (printing of currency notes) in the near future.

The Modi government had also announced Rs 40,000-crore production-linked incentive scheme to encourage large-scale electronics manufacturing in India in March2020. It remains to be seen if this will be included into the calculations of the economic package.

Last week, the government raised the borrowing target by over 50 per cent from Rs 7.8 lakh Crore to Rs 12 lakh Crore. This borrowing won't be sufficient to accommodate a large size fiscal stimulus. But it is not right to say India's fiscal stimulus is 10 per cent of its GDP. That's because the RBI's infusion of liquidity into the system is not an economic stimulus. Also, the liquidity hasn't translated into credit or gone to sectors that needed the most.

The Rs 20 lakh Crore package amounts over 65 per cent of the government's 2020/21 budget of Rs 30.42 lakh Core. The numbers do not really add up. The PM has included the earlier two packages in the Rs 20 lakh Core. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's relief package of Rs 1.74 lakh Core had items that had already budgeted in the Union Budget 2020/21. This includes the money for MGNREGA and PM Kisan. The actual amount over and above the budget was estimated to be Rs 1 lakh Core out of the Rs 1.74 lakh announced by the FM. Essentially, the actual stimulus was Rs 1 lakh Core only.

Similarly, RBI's Rs 4.74 lakh Core package was more of liquidity infusion and didn't actually translate into helping sectors which needed the money most. Banks didn't disburse money based on liquidity. Much of the RBI liquidity measures saw money flowing back to the RBI. The money remained with banks and the RBI.

If you remove Rs 6.54 lakh Core -the total of two packages -the economic package comes out to around Rs 14 lakh Core. The PM hinted that the package includes liquidity measures. Clearly, he is hinting at more measures from the RBI side which is not stimulus. Assuming Rs. 2 lakh Core liquidity infusion by RBI is added to the package, the remaining economic package amount comes out to be Rs 12 lakh Core.

Similarly, the remaining amount of the package could include some guarantee, which again is contingent. They could incentivize banks to lend few lakh Core, which will not be a hit on budget numbers.

Even if we assume additional money of Rs 10 lakh Core, the current borrowings won't be enough to accommodate it. The government will need additional money from the market – which may not have the appetite to buy such large quantities of government paper. Government may therefore, would go in for debt Monetization and or Quantitative Easing soon or may derive from PF Funds.

Wise men think that most of the money would be used for buying land by the state or from state of approx. 7Lac Core. For Infra projects money would be spend to the tune of Rs.5 Lac Core by Gov and Rs.5 Lac Core would be pitched-in by PPP Model , of which bank would finance by keeping PPP company as guarantor. Portion would be used for Labor law reforms for VRS purpose, and balance would be the amount spend on Defense purchases.

Best Luck PM Sir; nation is looking at you with expectation and due reservations.

A Leap of Faith – In the Test of Time

‘Covid.19,’ has triggered a crisis of mammoth proportion. It has given a smashing impact on the lives and livelihoods, with economies around the globe reeling under turmoil, facing collateral damages of every nature, much worse and fearful than that of financial crisis of 2008. Lurking danger of global recession is looming large.

The prices of even ‘True Blue’ stocks across industries, around the world have been battered black and blue. Global markets have shed around US $15 trillion of wealth. Stock indices of prominence have faced up to 30% fall; situation of Indian Indices have been no different- Dalal Street witnessed the blood bath more than once since March 2020, upcoming Burger King India- withdrawing their Initial Public Offerings and SBI Cards -saw listless listings.

We are in the firm grip of bears; for next 12 month for sure! New York Stock Exchange opened without its trading floor for the first time in 228 years on March 23^rd, after two people tested positive for Covid-19 on the trading floor. The fierce pace and extremity of correction has panicked investors, leading to the loss of confidence in the markets that could not be revived despite multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Countries are staring at sharp cuts in their GDP growth forecasts, with loss of millions of jobs in vogue.

However, times like these offer investors a rare opportunity to invest in assets at very attractive prices. As for the economies, they would defy all precedents and emerge stronger to deal with such ‘black swan’ events in the future.

The market volatility can be worrisome in the short term, but long-term investors need not develop cold feet. Global and Indian equity markets had rallied out of proportion, which is now getting corrected due to Covid-19 pandemic. However, going by the experiences of past out-break of viruses like Swine Flu and Zika, we have seen that such epidemics are temporary phenomena and when they are over, markets see unprecedented rise. Expect markets to gain traction once COVID.19 crisis is over.

Markets are cyclic; one should use this slump as an opportunity to invest for 36 month, in front-line stocks, which are fundamentally strong. We know for the fact that, quality companies will create wealth, as they have enough resilience to bounce back after a sharp decline.

However, it would be good to stay away from direct stock investing; if you don’t have grip on the subject and access to high grade research reports. Instead one can take Mutual Fund route for investing. Certain AAA rated Corporate FDs can also offer good options if one is comfortable with fixed rate of returns. Besides, get your selves sufficiently covered with adequate health and life insurance.

Market volatility helps build wealth over a period of time. Therefore, investors should continue disciplined investing through systematic investment plans (SIPs) and stick to their asset allocation. Those who have surplus money should invest more.  However, do not make the mistake of buying low priced stocks or cyclical stocks.

The major impact is expected to be on Hardware business, the Software and Services businesses are also expected to slow down. However, adoption of collaborative applications, security solutions, Big Data and AI are set to increase in the times ahead. IT solution providers should test run some concepts like enabling –‘work from any place, any time’, as they may have embedded business opportunities for the future.

In the long run, when things are under control, markets would recover and the same businesses would be fairly priced again. If we consider everyday utilities, despite a slowdown we would continue to consume toothpaste, soaps, tea and other grocery items. This is exactly where companies like Hindustan Unilever, D’Mart and Colgate come into the picture since, they would continue to create wealth as they have been in the past.  So, investing in the stocks of good I.T, FMCG, Pharma, Insurance companies can be a sensible decision.

India’s already decelerating economy is now staring at disruption as the country is locked down, though government of India and the RBI have taken slew of measures to combat COVID-19 impact.

India’s services sector comprising of retail, aviation and entertainment, have been severely hit. The manufacturing sector is also suffering, casting serious concerns about the medium term viability of many businesses, including the MSMEs. The infrastructure sector is also in turmoil. Fear is that these developments may lead leveraged companies to default and create non-performing assets. The current situation has also led to significant volatility in asset prices, especially for financial assets including publicly traded debt and equity.

In the current situation companies should assess cash balances to meet operational expenses, reassess business strategies in light of post-COVID scenario, necessary adjustments to the capital structure factoring in lower earnings, and diversify funding sources.

The current situation would leave deep impact on the economy due to it’s high intensity and long duration. It may alter the business landscape through changing trade flows, asset prices and consumption patterns, impacting all stake holders. The need of the hour is to put in place a robust action plan that addresses potential impact, from short-term cash flow concerns to longer term adjustments of financial statements. 

At the level of nation, the void created by disruption in global supplies can be filled by India. Global supply chain network has totally collapsed. The worst-hit sectors include technology and auto. China is a major exporter, creating significant reliance on them, is hurting the global economy and manufacturing of many companies have almost halted.

The movement of companies from China to other nations should be lapped up by India – which is in quest of FDI. The expansion of the manufacturing hub linked with global supply chains would create large-scale employment.

The outbreak of corona virus provides a sizeable opportunity for India to follow an export-driven model. However, necessary tools, pool of skilled labor, network of suppliers, easing the logistics process, better business environment, doing away with administrative bottlenecks, more incentives, robust infrastructure-power, efficient port and roads would be the ask to redeem the opportunities.

Time is the best healer. We don't know if this crisis is going to get worse, and we never know whether the panic is going to be the once-in-a-generation kind, but if we were to take a leap of faith looking at how China has recovered; we know that, we shall stand test of the time to emerge as winner.

HEDGE FUNDS

1)  "Hedging" is the practice to reduce risk, but the objective of majority of hedge funds is to maximize return on investment. The name is historical, as the first hedge funds tried to hedge against the downside risk of a bear market by shorting the market.

2)  Hedge funds use dozens of different strategies, so it isn't accurate to say that they just "hedge risk." In fact, since hedge fund managers make speculative investments, these funds may carry more risk than the overall market.

3)   However, there are mechanisms in place to protect those who invest in hedge funds. Often fee limitations such as high-water marks are employed to prevent portfolio managers from getting paid on the same returns twice. Fee caps may also be in place to dissuade managers from taking on excess risk.

4)   Hedge funds are alternative investment funds (AIFs), using pooled capital sourced from accredited investors or institutional investors (like banks, insurance firms, High Net-Worth Individuals (HNIs) & families, endowments and pension funds) and employ different strategies to earn active return or alpha for their investors, often with complicated portfolio-construction and risk management techniques.

5)  They are private investment vehicles that allow wealthy individuals to invest. Hedge funds can pretty much do what they want as long as they disclose the strategy upfront to investors. The minimum ticket size for investing in these funds in India is Rs 1 crore.

6)    A hedge fund can basically invest in anything—land, real estate, stocks, bonds, derivatives, commodities, currencies, convertible securities,  mutual funds, startups, art, rare stamps, collectibles, gold, wine.

7)   They can leverage (often use borrowed money to amplify their returns) in both domestic and international markets in quest of generating high returns (either in an absolute terms or over a specified market benchmark).

8) It is important to note that hedge funds require less SEC (Securities & Exchange Commission) regulations than other funds. One aspect that has set the hedge fund industry apart is that, they face less regulation than mutual funds and other investment vehicles.

9) It is administered by a professional investment management firm, often structured as a limited partnership or limited liability company.

10) Investments in hedge funds are illiquid as they often require investors to keep their money locked in the fund for at least a year.

11) Following the financial crisis of Yr.2007–2008, regulations were passed in the United States and Europe with the intention of increasing government oversight of hedge funds and eliminating certain regulatory gaps.

12) Preqin Global Hedge Fund Report, the Hedge funds have now grown to total assets of approx $3.235 trillion in 2018.

13) A hedge fund typically pays its investment manager annual management fee (for example, 2% of the assets of the fund), and a performance fee (for example, 20% of the increase in the fund's net asset value during the year).

Some of the strategies that hedge fund managers use are:

a)   Sell short: Here, the manager, hoping for the prices to drop, can sell shares to buy-back in future at a lesser price.

b) Invest in an upcoming event: in view of some major market events like mergers, acquisitions, spin-offs, among others can influence manager’s investment decisions.

c) Use arbitrage: Sometimes the securities may have contradictory or inefficient pricing; managers use this to their advantage.

d)  Invest in securities with high discounts: Some companies facing financial stress or even insolvency will sell their securities at an unbelievably low price.

Investors should use following  guidelines for hedge fund selection:

a)    Five-year annualized returns

b)    Standard deviation

c)    Rolling standard deviation

d)  Months to recovery/maximum Drawdown:  A drawdown is a peak-to-trough decline during a specific period for an investment, trading account, or fund. A drawdown is usually quoted as the percentage between the peak and the subsequent trough. If a trading account has $10,000 in it, and the funds drop to $9,000 before moving back above $10,000, then the trading account witnessed a 10% drawdown.

Drawdowns are important for measuring the historical risk of different investments, comparing fund performance, or monitoring personal trading performance.

e)  Downside deviation: Downside is the negative movement in the price of a security, sector or market. Downside can also describe periods when an economy has either stopped growing or is decelerating.

f)    Fund Size/Firm Size: The guideline for size may be a minimum or maximum depending on the investor's preference. For example, institutional investors often invest such large amounts that a fund or firm must have a minimum size to accommodate a large investment. For other investors, a fund that is too big may face future challenges using the same strategy to match past successes. Such might be the case for hedge funds that invest in the small-cap equity space.

g)  Track Record: If an investor wants a fund to have a minimum track record of 24 or 36 months, this guideline will eliminate any new funds.

h)  Minimum Investment: This criterion is very important for smaller investors as many funds have minimums that can make it difficult to diversify properly. Larger minimums may indicate a higher proportion of institutional investors, while low minimums may indicate a larger number of individual investors.

i)   Redemption Terms: These terms have implications for liquidity and become very important when an overall portfolio is highly illiquid. Longer lock-up periods are more difficult to incorporate into a portfolio, and redemption periods longer than a month can present some challenges during the portfolio-management process. A guideline may be implemented to eliminate funds that have lockups when a portfolio is already illiquid, while this guideline may be relaxed when a portfolio has adequate liquidity.

Comparing Hedge Funds & Mutual Funds:

a)   Investment Stance: Hedge funds generally have an aggressive stance on their investments and seek higher returns using speculative positions and trading in derivatives. They can take short positions (Short Sell) in the markets, while mutual funds cannot. Short selling allows these funds to benefit even in the falling markets, which is not so for mutual funds.

b)  Leverage: Mutual funds are safer as they don’t have much leverage, whereas hedge funds have a huge amount of leverage and thus attract higher risk.

c)  Investors: Hedge funds are available only to High net worth investors. Whereas, Mutual funds are accessible to the large group of people. In fact, you can start a SIP with the amount as low as Rs. 500.

d)  In short, hedge funds are comparatively high-risk funds that aim higher returns compared to mutual funds.

Some examples of hedge funds: 

Munoth Hedge Fund, Forefront Alternative Investment Trust, Quant First Alternative Investment Trust, IIFL Opportunities Fund, Singlar India Opportunities Trust, Motilal Oswal’s offshore hedge fund and India Zen Fund.

In the times like these

India's economic growth slumped to an over six-year low of 6.5%  due to slower consumer demand and private investment amid deteriorating global environment, prompting many global agencies to cut India's GDP growth for the year 2019-20. In October19 monetary policy review RBI had sharply cut it’s economic growth projection for this fiscal to 6.1% from earlier of 6.9%.

People need to have cash in their hands. However, record-high unemployment has severely affected the supply-demand ratio in India. This is key reason behind the economic slowdown. The government has to come up with a plan to increase wage growth; which would be possible only by injecting more liquidity into the system. Despite the bank mergers and re-capitalization, Indian banks are far from recovery, with non-performing assets (NPA) at staggering Rs 8 lac crore!

The NBFCs which are key lender to Micro, Small & Medium Enterprises continue to face liquidity crunch and show no signs of recovery in the near future too. To tackle the slowdown, revival of MSMEs are needed, which would create employment across sectors. It is high time the government focuses on fixing the liquidity crisis, which has choked lending to most MSMEs, and reducing the tax burden on individuals and companies.

Indian economy slowed in 2017 due to "Demonetisation" and introduction of “GST”. Nearly 60% of India's GDP is driven by domestic private consumption, government spending, investments, and exports. Merchandise exports dipped 1.1% in October19 from the same month a year earlier after dropping 6.6% in September’19, amounting to a total value of USD 26.4 billion in October’19.  Consumer prices rose 1.09% compared to the previous month, up from the 0.55% increase in September19. The increase was largely due to more expensive food and beverages, which, as a category account for over half of the weight of India’s consumer price basket.

Since India has a vast informal economy, barely 2% of Indians pay income taxes. According to World Bank, to achieve sustainable economic development India must focus on infrastructure, agricultural and rural development, removal of land and labour regulations, financial inclusion, spur private investment and exports, education and public health, public sector reform-selling “Navratnas” by way of disinvestments is not the only response.

Nearly 70% of India's population is rural whose primary source of livelihood is agriculture, and contributes about 50% of India's GDP. Govt. should focus on this sector, which has potential to become the major exporter of food products of the world.

Despite India holding world's seventh-largest foreign-exchange reserves worth $440 billion; suffers from high national debt with 68% of GDP, while its fiscal deficit  as per 2019 CAG report is 5.85% of GDP!

In the times like these business enterprises have to create long lasting anchors to remain healthy going concerns. We have to eject out of non-profitable activities, stay focused only on the core ones and identify the areas where we can go sleek in the cost. We have to build businesses which are rationalized  and vibrant in structure, low on Opex- operate on low ‘cost to income ratio’, less manpower intensive and more Tech Driven, which would build efficiencies and effectiveness at enterprise level. It’s time to relook our products, processes, sales and marketing plans to ensure that they bring maximum revenue with reduced cost.

As Warren Buffet says- ‘If you buy things you do not need, soon you will have to sell things you need’.   Therefore, as individuals we have to save every penny by restricting our needs and certainly curtailing our wants. In the times like these, do not lend/borrow, stay sufficiently covered with life, health and general insurances, create alternative sources of incomes via. rentals on our properties, investing in the financial instruments which are well sanitized against repayment defaults, diversified and offering decent ROIs.

The long-term growth perspective of the Indian economy remains promising due to its young population and corresponding low dependency ratio, healthy savings and investment rates, and it’s increasing integration into the global economy. The government has recently announced a slew of measures, including cut in corporate tax rate, capital infusion into public sector banks, setting up Rs 25,000 crore fund to boost realty sector, among others, to boost the economy.

However, for India to become a 5 Trillion $ economy; we would require structural changes, and policy decisions which are in concurrence with the demands of the industry to fuel growth, and are also in consonance with the inputs from economists, pegged at global standards.  Note, we still do not have any corporate which features in top 100 list of Fortune 500 or in Forbes; so lot of work still in hand at the level of government, corporate and every citizen.

Go conservative till the time changes for better.