Investor Caution Amidst Geopolitical Tensions

Investors in the Indian Stock Market are treading cautiously as uncertainty looms due to the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict. The potential for a full-fledged war in West Asia, with the involvement of multiple countries, has created unease in the market. Worries about a deepening crisis in the Middle East have driven oil benchmark Brent to remain above $88, offsetting concerns about the economic outlook in Europe.

Additionally, global investors are apprehensive about the possibility of higher interest rates worldwide. The recent rise in S&P Global's flash US Composite Purchasing Managers Index, the highest since July, may provide the US Federal Reserve with more leeway to maintain high interest rates; this could potentially impede future economic growth.

Mid and small-cap stocks have not been immune to the market's fluctuations, suffering significant losses. The overall market capitalization (mcap) of BSE-listed firms dropped to approximately ₹309.2 lakh crore from ₹323.8 lakh crore on October 17, resulting in investors' wealth diminishing by about ₹14.6 lakh crore over the course of five sessions.

However, in a surprising turn of events, the NSE Nifty and Sensex rebounded after a bearish streak lasting six days. BSE Sensex gained 1.01% (634.65 points) to close at 63,782.80 points, while Nifty surged 1.07% (202.45 points) to close above the benchmark 19,000 points level at 19,059.70 points. The rebound was led by sectors such as auto, IT, financial, and energy, primarily driven by better-than-expected Q2 financial results. Despite uncertain geopolitical situations in the Middle East, investor sentiment was boosted by these positive earnings reports. Notably, Asian Paints, Ultratech Cement, and ITC were the laggards, while HCL Tech, Coal India, and SBI emerged as the top gainers.

Author

Thakur Ajit Singh

Founder - Graded Financial Services | Quick Turtle | AskCred

Financial Expert | Trainer | Management & Placement Consultant

Cell: 8169810833

 

The White Metal: PLATINUM

 

The White Metal: PLATINUM

Investors are well-acquainted with the allure of gold as a store of value, but there's another precious metal that often goes overlooked—platinum. Often described as "The White Metal," platinum is an extraordinary asset with unique investment potential. It's not only thirty times rarer than gold but also boasts compelling supply and demand dynamics that set it apart as a lucrative investment option.

Investment Merits of Platinum:-

Historically, precious metals have been an essential component of diversified portfolios, serving as both safe-haven assets and hedges against inflation. While gold is the traditional favorite in this category, platinum presents a compelling alternative. It has been proven to enhance the effectiveness of precious metal allocations in portfolios by offering long-term diversification benefits.

Remarkably, even a modest inclusion of platinum, as low as 5%, in a gold-focused portfolio over the three decades would yield superior risk-adjusted returns. The unique characteristics of platinum make it an invaluable addition to an investment portfolio.

Platinum's Unique Qualities:-

Platinum's distinctive physical properties set it apart from other precious metals. This dense, malleable, and ductile metal can be fashioned into intricate shapes without losing its durability. To put its remarkable malleability in perspective, one gram of platinum can be stretched into a wire over a mile long. At the same time, it weighs much heavier; a six-inch cube of platinum weighs as much as an average human being.

Platinum Demand:-

Approximately 75% of the world's platinum is mined in South Africa, with Russia being the second-largest producer. Canada, the U.S., and Zimbabwe also contribute to global platinum production, albeit in smaller quantities. Interestingly, platinum is often a by-product of nickel mining, making its supply even scarcer in comparison to gold.

Platinum's demand emanates from four key sectors:

1. Automotive: Platinum plays a crucial role in controlling harmful vehicle emissions through catalytic converters. Emerging market demand for automobiles, coupled with stricter global emission standards, ensures robust growth potential in this sector.
2.  Industrial: Platinum has a broad spectrum of industrial applications, from biomedical devices to glass fiber and jet engine blade manufacturing. Its growth is intrinsically tied to global economic development.
3. Jewelry: Platinum has firmly established itself as the premier jewelry metal, with significant demand in regions like India and China.
4. Investment: Investment avenues for platinum include ETFs, accumulation plans, and physical bullion like bars and coins. Notably, the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) actively promotes platinum as an investment asset, enhancing market efficiency and expanding distribution channels.

 

Factors Affecting Platinum Prices:-

Several factors influence platinum prices, including:

1. Diesel: The decline in diesel car demand impacts platinum due to its use in catalytic converters for diesel engines.
2. Trade Wars: Trade disputes can disrupt industrial demand for platinum, affecting its price.
3. Hydrogen Technology: Growing investments in hydrogen fuel cells, which require platinum, can boost demand.
4.  South African Issues: The precarious state of South African platinum mines can reduce supply, potentially raising prices.
5. Scarcity: Platinum's rarity, even compared to gold, suggests a long-term upward price trend.

 

How to Invest in Platinum:-

There are various ways to invest in platinum globally:

1. Physical Bullion and Coins: Investors can purchase platinum bullion and coins through banks and authorized dealers, ensuring high purity and quality.
2.  Futures Trading: Platinum futures contracts are available on commodity exchanges for more active traders, but they entail higher risk.

The Future of Platinum:-

Given its current price, investment potential, and diverse industrial applications, platinum presents an attractive opportunity. Recent years have witnessed platinum becoming more affordable relative to other precious metals, making it increasingly popular. The emerging trend of platinum jewelry in the West is likely to drive its demand even higher, including in India.

As platinum's price remains below historical averages, many investors are recognizing its value. With its scarcity and versatile utility, platinum could potentially shine even brighter in the world of investments.

Author

Ajit Singh

Founder

Graded Financial Services | Quick Turtle | AskCred

Management Consultant | Trainer

 

 

Gold: A Timeless Treasure

 

Gold: A Timeless Treasure

Few elements have captivated the human imagination as gold has. In ancient Egypt, it was revered as divine and indestructible, believed to be a physical embodiment of the Sun itself.

Long before the advent of modern currencies like the dollar, euro, yen, or peso, gold reigned supreme as the world's de facto currency. The first gold coins were minted in 550 B.C.E., and well into the 20th century, modern paper currencies were backed by the "gold standard."

Even today, gold retains its allure as the ultimate "safe haven" commodity. It is tangible and resilient, retaining its value when compared to "paper" investments like cash, stocks, and bonds.

How Much Gold Remains?

According to the US Geological Survey, underground gold reserves are currently estimated at around 50,000 tons. While this figure is subject to variation, it suggests that approximately 20% of the world's gold remains to be mined, a process that could take up to two decades.

Nonetheless, the depletion of easily accessible gold reserves doesn't necessarily spell the end of gold mining. Ongoing research and the introduction of new technologies may open up previously untapped resources, although mining costs may rise significantly. Should gold become scarcer, its market price could skyrocket.

The following countries boast significant gold reserves:

Australia: 10,000 tonnes (19% of the total)

Russia: 7,500 tonnes (14%)

U.S.: 3,000 tonnes (6%)

Peru: 2,700 tonnes (5%)

South Africa: 2,700 tonnes (5%)

Rest of the World: 27,100 tonnes (51%)

These reserves not only dictate current production but also hint at future potential mining locations.

 

Prospects for Future Gold Mining:

Surprisingly, the sea contains approximately 20 million tonnes of gold. However, the challenge lies in the fact that gold is incredibly dilute in seawater, with just billionths of a gram in an average liter. Extracting this gold from the sea remains a formidable task.

On land, experts estimate that the top four kilometers of Earth's crust contain as much as 122 billion metric tons of gold, not accounting for what lies beneath the oceans. If new technologies allow for the profitable extraction of gold at lower concentrations, the world may possess more gold than initially thought.

Beyond Earth, asteroids in the Asteroid Belt could potentially contain substantial amounts of gold in their cores, though the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of extracting this gold remain distant prospects.

 

Who Holds Gold?

Gold is coveted by investors worldwide for its ability to preserve value, particularly during times of high inflation. Investment accounts for a significant portion of gold's use, with over 44,000 tonnes held as bars, coins, or bullion in gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Central banks are also major gold holders. Unlike other assets like foreign currencies or equities, gold's value depends on supply and demand dynamics. Therefore, central banks often use gold to diversify their assets and safeguard against fiat currency depreciation. As of 2021, central banks held more than 35,000 tonnes of gold, accounting for nearly one-fifth of all above-ground gold.

Gold isn't just a financial asset; it plays a crucial role in various industries, including electronics, dentistry, and space exploration. For example, a typical iPhone contains around 0.034 grams of gold, along with other precious metals. These industrial applications make up approximately 15% of all above-ground gold.

A Golden Future

Gold has stood the test of time, and it's likely to do so in the future due to its indestructible nature. This enduring quality, coupled with its rarity and inability to be artificially produced in large quantities, makes gold a valuable and essential investment.

With growing concerns about money supply expansion and inflation, gold will continue to deliver value and offer a safe haven for investors during times of volatility. It remains a reliable means of preserving wealth for the long term.

 

Author:

Thakur Ajit Singh
Founder - Quick Turtle | Graded Financial Services | AskCred
Financial Expert | Trainer | Management & Placement Consultant
Cell: 8169810833

BULLS – Won’t Tire: Indian Equities Set to Shine in 2023.

 

BULLS – Won’t Tire: Indian Equities Set to Shine in 2023.

Indian equities have emerged as one of the top-performing markets in 2023, joining the league of the best. The weakness in the US dollar has once again made Indian and other emerging equity markets highly attractive to foreign institutional investors. Furthermore, amid fears of an economic recession in the US and sluggish demand in China, FIIs are increasingly favoring the Indian equity market over China.

The bulls have tightened their grip on the domestic stock markets, propelling benchmark equity indices to reach new heights in July 2023, marking a successful beginning to the Q1FY24 earnings season. On July 18, the benchmark BSE Sensex achieved an unprecedented intra-day peak, surpassing the 67,000 mark, driven by a surge in FII inflows. The Nifty 50 also rallied and crossed the 19,800 mark. This bullish sentiment was further bolstered by robust financial results from IT majors like TCS and HCL Technologies, acting as booster shots for the market.

Looking ahead, Nifty earnings are expected to remain robust in Q1FY24, with significant contributions from sectors like BFSI, automotive, and OMCs. Additionally, macroeconomic factors are favorably positioned, including increased credit off-take, declining energy prices, promising industrial activity, and diminishing recessionary fears. Moreover, the global rate hike cycle is expected to plateau, which should bode well for Indian markets.

India Inc. is currently delivering impressive profits, and FII investments are flowing back to Indian shores. Furthermore, the government's focus on infrastructure development presents enticing opportunities for companies operating in this space, potentially driving their stock prices higher. Additionally, the year 2023 is anticipated to witness numerous companies going public to fund their growth plans, injecting excitement into the market.

Considering these factors, we expect the bull run to sustain throughout the entirety of 2023, and the Sensex may even surpass market expectations, reaching the 75,000 mark. However, caution and attentiveness in the market should be the key to investing.

 

Author: Ajit Singh

Founder

Quick Turtle | Graded Financial Services | AskCred.

Management Consultant | Trainer 

 

 

 

Performance of Indian Stock Market since the year 2020 with Outlook for 2023

 

Performance of Indian Stock Market since the year 2020 with Outlook for 2023

Equity markets have faced credible challenges since the year 2022 due to Covid, geo-political strife, high inflation, and sequential rise in interest rates.

In March 2020, due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent lockdowns, the Indian stock market experienced an epic fall where the BSE Sensex index nosedived from around 41,000 to around 26,000 in a matter of few weeks.

However, the market recovered gradually and the Sensex crossed the 50,000 mark for the first time in January 2021. The rising trend continued with the Sensex hitting its all-time high of 63583.07 in September 2021.

It’s been said that, ‘in the Stock Market - be brave when others are coward, and be coward when others are brave’. With that logic, those who invested in the equity market when the Sensex fell to the level of 26000, and stayed put till the Sensex breached 60000 points; would have surely gained tremendously.

However, since September 2021, the market has been volatile with the Sensex fluctuating between 55,000 and 60,000, on account of – the fear of Covid return, the chances of intensifying Russia -Ukraine war (which would be completing 1-year), the weakness of Rupee, global supply chain challenges, and the staggering inflation.

The year 2022 had been marred by a series of challenging phenomena including inflation, successive rise in Interest Rates; resulting in massive sell-off by FPIs in favor of investing in safe fixed-income securities, headwinds in China both on account of the country’s zero Covid-tolerance policy and political tension with Taiwan—all of which have led to tighter financial conditions and weakened economic activity across the world.

The year 2023:

Macroeconomic indicators like direct tax collection, consumer price-based inflation, industrial index, GST mop-up, and core sector are strong in comparison to developed economies and emerging markets.

At the same time, the headwinds Indian investors need to watch in 2023 are - the expanding trade deficit, the persistent outflow of foreign institutional investors, the weakening of Indian currency, and the drying up of liquidity. However, thanks to huge domestic consumption, backed by the quantum of retail participation (total Demat accounts are 10.6 Cr) Indian markets would be more resilient to the challenges in play.

The majority of the experts think consumer sentiment will see an uptick in 2023 and the Indian stock markets performance would be better in the sectors like banking, automobiles, real estate, and company stocks with strong fundamentals.

Contributions to mutual fund schemes through systematic investment plans (SIPs) remain unfazed by the market volatility in 2022 with inflow growing to ₹1.5 lakh crore in 2022, a surge of 31 percent from a year earlier, due to higher retail participation. Therefore, the way forward for passive Retail Investors should be to invest 50% of their investible surplus in the equity market through systematic investment plans (SIPs) of mutual funds, with a horizon of 3-5 years in mind.

The balance 50% of investors’ portfolio should be built through investing in Fixed Income Securities viz. Company Fixed Deposits, Bonds, and NCDs, which are offering very attractive returns in the rising interest rates scenario. However, care must be taken to invest only in AAA-rated instruments.

 

Author

Ajit Singh

Founder

Quick Turtle | Graded Financial Services | AskCred.

Management Consultant | Trainer 

 

 

Outlook of Debt Market for 2nd half of the Year 2022

 

Outlook of Debt Market for 2nd half of the Year 2022

We would begin the topic by covering basic concepts relevant to the readers for a better understanding of this article.

Sometimes, banks may need liquidity to take care of an unprecedented spurt in the withdrawal of funds by their account holders, or to maintain the prescribed limit of the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) and Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR). In such situations, banks may have to take loans from RBI by keeping Government Securities (G-Secs) as collateral. At the end of the loan term i.e. either overnight or 7 days, the bank repurchases the Government Securities from RBI by repaying the loan amount along with a pre-decided interest rate called Repo Rate – which is the interest rate at which the RBI lends money to the banks. In case, the bank defaults in paying the borrowed money back to the RBI, the latter sells the G-Secs that were kept as collateral.

Regulating the Repo rate is one of the tools available with RBI to regulate inflation (called Hawkish monitory policy) and growth in the economy (called Dovish monitory policy).

Consider a situation where the economy is facing high inflation; the RBI will keep increasing the Repo rate with an objective to curtail part of available liquidity in the hands of consumers. 

With the increase in the Repo rate; banks have to pay more interest to borrow money from RBI. Banks in turn would raise the lending rate on the loans given to their borrowers. This move, leaves consumers with less money thus, reducing their purchasing power, leading to a decrease in the demand for goods and services - making them cheaper; eventually cooling down the inflation.

The rationale behind RBI’s decision to increase Repo Rate: Based on the assessment of the economic situation, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the RBI, decided to increase the policy repo rate under the Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF). The decision to tame the inflation was made in light of growing inflation, the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia, high crude prices, and global commodity shortages. Besides, US Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 50 basis points to 0.75%-1% in the May 2022 meeting, thus impacting the markets across the globe.

The RBI wants to keep inflation under control, which is already close to 7%, as well as manage and monitor money flow into the banking sector. Therefore, RBI may continue to further hike Repo rates to reach the level of 6 to 6.50% by March 2023.

 

Effect of rising Repo Rate on Fixed Deposit:  The rate hike is welcomed by the deposit holders of banks and corporates, as fixed deposits have become an attractive option to invest with surges in interest rates.

 

Effect of rising Repo Rate on Debt Mutual Funds: Assume that a 10-year Government bond was issued at a face value of Rs. 100 at 8% interest (coupon) rate, which implies the yield in this bond is Rs. 8/-

If the Repo rate increases and the lending rate is increased to for example 10%, that would mean that the yield for the new bond issued will be Rs. 10 /-. This will reduce the demand for the 8% bond since the 10% coupon rate promises better returns.

Therefore, to make the former more attractive, the face value of the bond will be decreased to, say, Rs. 90/-. So, the yield for this bond now becomes 8.89% (8/90*100), which is higher than the original- making it more attractive.

Hence, an increase in interest rate is directly proportional to the yield and inversely proportional to the face value. This means that the Bond prices are inversely correlated to yield.  When interest rates and the yield goes up, bond prices decline (and vice-versa) resulting in mark-to-market losses for debt mutual funds.

After the RBI's announcement, the 10-year bond yield, which had been steadily rising in recent months, inched up to 7.40%. As a result, the net asset value (NAV) of debt mutual funds has fallen sharply, particularly for medium and long-duration funds. An increase in interest rates will have a negative impact on debt funds with a longer duration.

Conversely, a decrease in the Repo rate may make the debt schemes more attractive as it may increase the NAV of the debt schemes. The margin of gain will depend on the average maturity and the securities the scheme holds.

Effect of rising Repo Rate on Equity Market:  The Equity market typically goes down with the RBI's policy rate hike.  When there is plenty of liquidity, the equity market does well. If the RBI tightens the interest rates, the stock market is adversely impacted. Following the RBI's action, banks tend to raise their lending rates, thus making loans more expensive. As a result, companies will have to pay a higher interest rate to borrow money, indirectly impacting their liquidity position, and leading to a decrease in equity fund returns.

What should an investor do?

 

Looking at the inflation of 7%, the terminal Repo rate should stand somewhere at 6-6.5%. Therefore, investing in Corporate Fixed Deposits (choose only AAA-rated CFDs) would offer a better interest rate over the bank fixed deposit.

Invest in debt mutual funds if you have a large investment portfolio. Debt mutual funds are taxed at 20% with indexation if you hold the money for more than three years. If you are investing for less than three years, they don’t have any tax advantages and are taxed like bank deposits at applicable income tax rates.

If you decide to invest for three years or more, look at investing in the Corporate bond funds, and Banking & PSU funds. Also, investing in the Target Maturity Funds (TMFs) is a good option, as you need not worry if held until maturity, as are locked in at the yield at the time of investing.

 

Note on TMFs: These are passive debt funds that track an underlying bond index. Thus, the portfolio of such funds comprises bonds that are part of the underlying bond index, and these bonds have maturities in-line with the fund’s stated maturity. The bonds in the portfolio are held to maturity and all interest payments received during the holding period are reinvested in the fund. Thus, Target Maturity bond funds operate in an accrual mode like FMPs. However, unlike FMPs, TMFs are open-ended in nature and are offered either as target maturity debt index funds or target maturity bond ETFs. Thus, TMFs offer greater liquidity than FMPs.

TMFs are currently mandated to invest in government securities, PSU bonds, and SDLs (State Development Loans), thus, carrying lower default risk compared to other debt funds.

 

Author

Ajit Singh

Founder

Graded Financial Services | Quick Turtle | AskCred

Email: ajit@gradedfinancialservices.com

Shimmering Gold

 

Shimmering Gold 

After China, India is the second-biggest gold consumer in the world. However, India fulfills most of its gold demand through imports, and it is largely driven by the jewelry industry. India imported the highest quantity of gold in the last 10 years in 2021. The imports of gold in May 2022 jumped by almost nine times to $7.7 billion compared to a year ago.

However, the year 2022 has brought uncertainty to market players who are trying to assess the implication of higher interest rates on economic growth, in the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine fight and the China- Taiwan conflict taking shape for war.

The gold price had a disappointing performance so far considering the strong uptrend in most commodities. Gold witnessed mixed trade in the first half of the year and has registered near 1% decline.

The central government decided to curb the import of the precious metal by hiking the import duty on bullion from 7.5% to 12.5% on 1^st July 2022 this year, amid the widening trade deficit, and the rupee taking nose-diving to Rs.80 to US$.  Gold also attracts a 2.5% Agriculture Infrastructure Development Cess (AIDC), adding up total duty of 15%. However, one may recall that last year the government cut the import tax to 7.5% to strengthen the domestic market. So, a hike of 7.5% on import duty can be termed as a reversal to maintain the balance. 

Considering that we meet domestic demand by way of gold import; such a step may lead to a proportionate rise in the price of domestic gold by around Rs.2000/10gm, factoring in international gold prices which are trading with a slightly negative bias. With domestic prices surging, demand is likely to take a hit at a time when the country is already grappling with high inflation.

Impact on Gold consumers of India:

Since the onset of the Coronavirus pandemic, gold prices escalated significantly in India. In March 2020, the gold rate was between Rs. 41,000 and Rs. 43,000 per 10 grams, making a historic high of Rs. 56,000 in August 2020. Currently, it is around Rs 53,300 at the time of writing this blog.

Higher prices due to duty hikes, slower economic activity, and tightening liquidity conditions due to interest rate hikes may impact gold demand significantly. The import duty hike will lead to a rise in the prices of gold jewelry in the country. With the GST rate hike on cut and polished diamonds from 0.25% to 1.5% from July 18, jewelry will most likely get dearer.
The move may affect exports too, which in May 2022  witnessed a year-on-year growth of 20% (Source: Gem and Jewelry Export Promotion Council).

Consumers consider gold as a hedge against inflation. However, this may not be the right time to invest in gold (SIP through gold ETF continues to be an exception), but, move the funds to be invested to sector-specific equities, Mutual Funds (via SIP route), and Corporate fixed deposits of AAA-rated companies which are giving attractive interest upto 7.40% p.a for 36month tenure.

 

Author

Thakur Ajit Singh

Co-Founder

Graded Financial Services | Quick Turtle | AskCred

Email: gradedfinserv@gmail.com

 

Invest Wise: Equity Market in 2nd half of the Year 2022

 

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 Invest Wise: Equity Market in 2^nd half of the Year 2022. 

Equity sentiment has been bearish, resulting in the worst annual start in the year 2022 for equities in 100 years.

The domestic equity market has witnessed a sharp correction in the first half of the year 2022. Benchmark indices BSE Sensex and Nifty50 have dropped more than 10% between January and June 2022. The fall in BSE midcap index has been steeper, and BSE smallcaps index has dropped over 16%. The Reuters poll of 30 equity strategists, conducted 13-24 May 2022, forecast the BSE Sensex to recoup less than half of its recent losses and gain only 3.2% to 56,000 by the end of 2022 from 54,288 points.

We have many challenges to tackle viz. high inflation, restoring the strength of Indian Rupee from its historical fall against US$, bridging the gap of burgeoning trade deficit, restoring the confidence of FPIs, and creating investment friendly atmosphere for FDI- which is a more stable and long-term investment.

Few more rate hikes are expected, making consumer loans dearer, which would adversely impact demand, in concurrence impacting GDP numbers. While we have yet no site on Russia – Ukraine war to end; China- Taiwan war is looming large, which if happens, would drift the already struggling world economy further away from revival.  Being a large importer of oil; the Indian economy is vulnerable to the recent increase in oil prices– which might take some more time to cool, thus, building further pressure on rising inflation, and depreciating Indian Currency.

Indian equities often underperform emerging markets historically in periods of high oil prices. Besides, market valuations are still higher than pre-pandemic levels. Valuations are susceptible to heightened global uncertainties. A combination of a quantitative tightening by a series of rate hikes, leading to a tighter liquidity situation, and commodity inflation would continue to exert pressure on asset prices.

Though the Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) outflows from India exceeded USD 30 billion in the first half of 2022, however, during that flight, the domestic investors did a balancing act by investing in Indian equities, showing their confidence in India’s growth story.

The data shows that Mutual Fund companies had 13.46 crore folios in June 2022 compared to 12.95 crore in March 2022, an increase of 51 lakh over the previous three months. The domestic MF industry's average AUM grew 19% to Rs 38.37 trn in FY22. Strong inflows into equity and hybrid schemes coupled with sustained inflows through the Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) contributed to the growth in assets. The assets under management (AUM) for SIP at the end of March 2022 were Rs 5,76,358.30 crore. showing that the retail investors kept investing despite the market's turbulence, to take advantage of Rupee Cost Averaging with the Power of Compounding.

India's GDP growth forecast is projected to be 7 % plus for the year, making it one of the fastest growing economies in the world. GST collections, Credit offtake, and Consumption numbers are showing an uptick. Therefore, the Indian stock market is likely to moderately stabilize in the second half of 2022. A mid-to-high single-digit growth rate is expected for S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) in 2022, with J.P. Morgan’s estimates at $225 (vs. consensus $229.58).

It would be right to strategically buy the dips and allocate funds in select sectors like IT, banking, and consumer space where valuations have become attractive. Also, in these uncertain times, make Mutual Fund SIPs your preferred vehicle to take exposure in the equity market, by investing in a combination of Top Rated Mutual Fund schemes viz. Large Cap, Mid Cap, Small Cap, Multi-Cap, and Hybrid funds.

 

Author

Ajit Singh

Co-Founder

Graded Financial Services | Quick Turtle | AskCred

Email : gradedfinserv@gmail.com | Cell: 81698 10833

Rs 20 Lakh Crore Kite

Rs 20 Lakh Crore Kite 

PM Narendra Modi announced a Rs 20-lakh-crore stimulus package, equivalent to about 10% of India’s GDP, aimed at making the country self-reliant and reviving the stalled economy. Details of the plan, dubbed the Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyaan, will be unveiled by finance minister Mrs. Nirmala Sitharaman today evening at 4pm.

The package is seen as a government attempt to check the world's fifth-largest economy hurtling towards its first full-year contraction in four decades. According to estimates, lockdown may have led to 12.2 Crore people losing jobs and consumer demand evaporating.

The package will focus on land, labor, liquidity and laws, and will cater to various sectors including the cottage industries, micro, small & medium enterprises (MSMEs), the working class, middle class and industry, among others. He said the package will also focus on empowering the poor, laborers and migrant workers, both in the organized and unorganized sectors. It will seek to increase efficiency and ensure quality.

As part of the package, Mr. Modi hinted at sops for the middle class and Indian corporate as well as changes in customs duties on imports to make Indian products competitive. This could mean lowering of import duties on raw materials needed for products manufactured in India, as well as higher import duties on finished products to ensure Make in India becomes successful.

The Rs 20 lakh Crore package includes Rs 1.7 lakh crore package of free food grains to poor and cash to poor women and elderly, which was already announced by Finance Minister Mrs. Nirmala Sitharaman, along with the Reserve Bank's liquidity measures and interest rate cuts. While the March stimulus was 0.8 per cent of GDP, RBI's cut in interest rates and liquidity boosting measures totaled to 3.2 per cent of the GDP (about Rs 6.5 lakh crore).

The exact details of the Rs 20 lakh Crore economic package hinted at by Prime Minister Narendra Modi are not known yet, but a plain reading of the number hints at more government borrowings and possible debt monetization (printing of currency notes) in the near future.

The Modi government had also announced Rs 40,000-crore production-linked incentive scheme to encourage large-scale electronics manufacturing in India in March2020. It remains to be seen if this will be included into the calculations of the economic package.

Last week, the government raised the borrowing target by over 50 per cent from Rs 7.8 lakh Crore to Rs 12 lakh Crore. This borrowing won't be sufficient to accommodate a large size fiscal stimulus. But it is not right to say India's fiscal stimulus is 10 per cent of its GDP. That's because the RBI's infusion of liquidity into the system is not an economic stimulus. Also, the liquidity hasn't translated into credit or gone to sectors that needed the most.

The Rs 20 lakh Crore package amounts over 65 per cent of the government's 2020/21 budget of Rs 30.42 lakh Core. The numbers do not really add up. The PM has included the earlier two packages in the Rs 20 lakh Core. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's relief package of Rs 1.74 lakh Core had items that had already budgeted in the Union Budget 2020/21. This includes the money for MGNREGA and PM Kisan. The actual amount over and above the budget was estimated to be Rs 1 lakh Core out of the Rs 1.74 lakh announced by the FM. Essentially, the actual stimulus was Rs 1 lakh Core only.

Similarly, RBI's Rs 4.74 lakh Core package was more of liquidity infusion and didn't actually translate into helping sectors which needed the money most. Banks didn't disburse money based on liquidity. Much of the RBI liquidity measures saw money flowing back to the RBI. The money remained with banks and the RBI.

If you remove Rs 6.54 lakh Core -the total of two packages -the economic package comes out to around Rs 14 lakh Core. The PM hinted that the package includes liquidity measures. Clearly, he is hinting at more measures from the RBI side which is not stimulus. Assuming Rs. 2 lakh Core liquidity infusion by RBI is added to the package, the remaining economic package amount comes out to be Rs 12 lakh Core.

Similarly, the remaining amount of the package could include some guarantee, which again is contingent. They could incentivize banks to lend few lakh Core, which will not be a hit on budget numbers.

Even if we assume additional money of Rs 10 lakh Core, the current borrowings won't be enough to accommodate it. The government will need additional money from the market – which may not have the appetite to buy such large quantities of government paper. Government may therefore, would go in for debt Monetization and or Quantitative Easing soon or may derive from PF Funds.

Wise men think that most of the money would be used for buying land by the state or from state of approx. 7Lac Core. For Infra projects money would be spend to the tune of Rs.5 Lac Core by Gov and Rs.5 Lac Core would be pitched-in by PPP Model , of which bank would finance by keeping PPP company as guarantor. Portion would be used for Labor law reforms for VRS purpose, and balance would be the amount spend on Defense purchases.

Best Luck PM Sir; nation is looking at you with expectation and due reservations.

A Leap of Faith – In the Test of Time

‘Covid.19,’ has triggered a crisis of mammoth proportion. It has given a smashing impact on the lives and livelihoods, with economies around the globe reeling under turmoil, facing collateral damages of every nature, much worse and fearful than that of financial crisis of 2008. Lurking danger of global recession is looming large.

The prices of even ‘True Blue’ stocks across industries, around the world have been battered black and blue. Global markets have shed around US $15 trillion of wealth. Stock indices of prominence have faced up to 30% fall; situation of Indian Indices have been no different- Dalal Street witnessed the blood bath more than once since March 2020, upcoming Burger King India- withdrawing their Initial Public Offerings and SBI Cards -saw listless listings.

We are in the firm grip of bears; for next 12 month for sure! New York Stock Exchange opened without its trading floor for the first time in 228 years on March 23^rd, after two people tested positive for Covid-19 on the trading floor. The fierce pace and extremity of correction has panicked investors, leading to the loss of confidence in the markets that could not be revived despite multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Countries are staring at sharp cuts in their GDP growth forecasts, with loss of millions of jobs in vogue.

However, times like these offer investors a rare opportunity to invest in assets at very attractive prices. As for the economies, they would defy all precedents and emerge stronger to deal with such ‘black swan’ events in the future.

The market volatility can be worrisome in the short term, but long-term investors need not develop cold feet. Global and Indian equity markets had rallied out of proportion, which is now getting corrected due to Covid-19 pandemic. However, going by the experiences of past out-break of viruses like Swine Flu and Zika, we have seen that such epidemics are temporary phenomena and when they are over, markets see unprecedented rise. Expect markets to gain traction once COVID.19 crisis is over.

Markets are cyclic; one should use this slump as an opportunity to invest for 36 month, in front-line stocks, which are fundamentally strong. We know for the fact that, quality companies will create wealth, as they have enough resilience to bounce back after a sharp decline.

However, it would be good to stay away from direct stock investing; if you don’t have grip on the subject and access to high grade research reports. Instead one can take Mutual Fund route for investing. Certain AAA rated Corporate FDs can also offer good options if one is comfortable with fixed rate of returns. Besides, get your selves sufficiently covered with adequate health and life insurance.

Market volatility helps build wealth over a period of time. Therefore, investors should continue disciplined investing through systematic investment plans (SIPs) and stick to their asset allocation. Those who have surplus money should invest more.  However, do not make the mistake of buying low priced stocks or cyclical stocks.

The major impact is expected to be on Hardware business, the Software and Services businesses are also expected to slow down. However, adoption of collaborative applications, security solutions, Big Data and AI are set to increase in the times ahead. IT solution providers should test run some concepts like enabling –‘work from any place, any time’, as they may have embedded business opportunities for the future.

In the long run, when things are under control, markets would recover and the same businesses would be fairly priced again. If we consider everyday utilities, despite a slowdown we would continue to consume toothpaste, soaps, tea and other grocery items. This is exactly where companies like Hindustan Unilever, D’Mart and Colgate come into the picture since, they would continue to create wealth as they have been in the past.  So, investing in the stocks of good I.T, FMCG, Pharma, Insurance companies can be a sensible decision.

India’s already decelerating economy is now staring at disruption as the country is locked down, though government of India and the RBI have taken slew of measures to combat COVID-19 impact.

India’s services sector comprising of retail, aviation and entertainment, have been severely hit. The manufacturing sector is also suffering, casting serious concerns about the medium term viability of many businesses, including the MSMEs. The infrastructure sector is also in turmoil. Fear is that these developments may lead leveraged companies to default and create non-performing assets. The current situation has also led to significant volatility in asset prices, especially for financial assets including publicly traded debt and equity.

In the current situation companies should assess cash balances to meet operational expenses, reassess business strategies in light of post-COVID scenario, necessary adjustments to the capital structure factoring in lower earnings, and diversify funding sources.

The current situation would leave deep impact on the economy due to it’s high intensity and long duration. It may alter the business landscape through changing trade flows, asset prices and consumption patterns, impacting all stake holders. The need of the hour is to put in place a robust action plan that addresses potential impact, from short-term cash flow concerns to longer term adjustments of financial statements. 

At the level of nation, the void created by disruption in global supplies can be filled by India. Global supply chain network has totally collapsed. The worst-hit sectors include technology and auto. China is a major exporter, creating significant reliance on them, is hurting the global economy and manufacturing of many companies have almost halted.

The movement of companies from China to other nations should be lapped up by India – which is in quest of FDI. The expansion of the manufacturing hub linked with global supply chains would create large-scale employment.

The outbreak of corona virus provides a sizeable opportunity for India to follow an export-driven model. However, necessary tools, pool of skilled labor, network of suppliers, easing the logistics process, better business environment, doing away with administrative bottlenecks, more incentives, robust infrastructure-power, efficient port and roads would be the ask to redeem the opportunities.

Time is the best healer. We don't know if this crisis is going to get worse, and we never know whether the panic is going to be the once-in-a-generation kind, but if we were to take a leap of faith looking at how China has recovered; we know that, we shall stand test of the time to emerge as winner.