Sunday, May 26, 2024

The Perfect Blend in Investing



The Perfect Blend in Investing

Dear Investors,

Direct Equity Investment is not for the investors juggling busy schedules and lacking in-depth market knowledge, navigating the investment landscape can be overwhelming.

Enter professionally managed funds like Mutual Funds (MF), Portfolio Management Services (PMS), and Alternate Investment Funds (AIF), offering a streamlined approach to diversified investing.


Challenges for Investors:

Identifying the right funds amidst the multitude of options can be daunting (there are 2500 Mutual Fund Schemes, 324 PMS schemes, 1088 schemes in AIF in India), requiring extensive research across various asset classes. Seeking guidance from experienced investment consultants like 'GRADED FINANCIAL SERVICES', whose founders come with collective experience of 60 years while operating in the space of Stock Broking, Wealth Management, Banking, Insurance, Forex and Investment Banking, can ease this burden.


1)    Mutual Fund (MF):

MFs pool resources from investors to access a range of investment opportunities, from equities to bonds and more.

Benefits include risk diversification, affordability, liquidity, low expense ratios, and tax efficiency.

The minimum amount required to invest in mutual funds is Rs. 100/- for the Lumpsum and Rs. 500/- through SIP (Systematic Investment Plan).

 

2)   Portfolio Management Services (PMS):

PMS offers tailored investment solutions for High-Net-Worth Individuals (HNIs), providing access to diverse asset classes viz. mix of stocks, fixed income, commodities, real estate, other structured products, and cash

Unlike mutual funds, PMS offers flexibility in exposure and fee structures based on performance.

The minimum amount required to invest in PMS is Rs.50 Lac.

 

3)   Alternate Investment Fund (AIF):

It is a privately pooled investment vehicle that invests in alternative asset classes such as - private equity, venture capital, SMEs, debt funds, Private Investment in Public Equity Fund (PIPE), hedge funds, real estate, commodities, and derivatives.

AIFs may offer higher returns than traditional investments due to their exposure to a broader range of assets and investment strategies. However, this higher return also comes with higher risk.

The minimum investment amount for investors is Rs. 1 crore.


(AIF) Taxation:

Tax implications vary across AIF categories, with Category I and II enjoying pass-through status (taxed at the hands of investors), while in case of Category III the income earned will be taxable in the hands of the fund.

 

Suggestions:

Personalized investment strategies based on financial goals and investment capacity, combining MFs, PMS, and AIFs for optimal diversification and risk management.

For Example

1) Invest less than Rs.1 Crore:  in highly rated (evaluated based on 7 – vital parameters of selection) MFs, diversified in equal amount amongst Top Rated Large, Mid, Small, Multicap, Hybrid, and Index Funds.

2) To Invest Rs. 1 Crore: Rs. 50 Lac in MFs (as explained in above point number 1) and Rs. 50 Lac in Highly rated PMS.

3) To Invest Rs. 2 Crore: Rs. 50 Lac in MFs (as explained in above point number 1), Rs. 50 Lac in highly rated PMS, and Rs. 1 Crore in hghly rated AIF.

4) To invest over Rs. 2 Crore: Follow above sequence from point 1 to 3.


Conclusion:

The Blend of MF, PMS, AIF would offer wonderful opportunities to the investors to take exposures, vide diversification across asset classes, market caps, executed under different proven strategies of investing by an experienced Fund Managers.

However, sound subject knowledge, capability to do risk assessment, and make right choices of funds /schemes by the investors would make all the difference, as the funds come with varying degree of complexities, risk and corpus requirement.

 

Committed to your financial well-being.

Warm Regards
Thakur Ajit Singh
Founder - Quick Turtle | Graded Financial Services | AskCred
Financial Expert | Trainer | Management & Placement Consultant
Cell: 8169810833


 

Wednesday, March 6, 2024

A Landmark : India's Inclusion in Bond Index

 


Dear Investors,

A significant milestone has been achieved by the Indian bond market with its inclusion in the JP Morgan’s widely tracked Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM). This development marks a transformative moment in the landscape of global finance, with far-reaching implications for investors, policymakers, and market participants alike.

As India continues to position itself as a key player in the global economy, the inclusion in the bond index serves as a testament to its growing significance on the world stage. This stride of India, is  poised to provide a substantial boost to the Indian Rupee (INR) and its international standing.

The long-term implications of this development are noteworthy. India's bond yields currently enjoy a significant advantage over those of its counterparts in the US and China. With India's 10-year government bonds yielding at 7.2 per cent compared to 4.5 per cent in the US and 2.7 per cent in China, the attractiveness of Indian bonds to global investors is likely to grow substantially.

Moreover, despite being a large and liquid market, Indian bonds have historically been absent from major global or emerging market indices. Therefore, JPMorgan's decision to include Indian bonds in its index is not only a significant validation of India's bond market maturity but also paves the way for increased global participation.

During the inclusion period, it is anticipated that the Indian bond market will witness a substantial influx of capital, with estimates suggesting inflows of USD 23-30 billion. This infusion of capital will not only deepen the liquidity of the Indian bond market but also, provide new avenues for investors to diversify their portfolios.

It is also worth noting that India's bonds are being considered for inclusion in other major indices, such as the FTSE Emerging Markets Government Bond Index, further underscoring the growing recognition of India as a key player in the global financial markets.

In conclusion, the inclusion of Indian bonds in the index represents a significant step forward for the Indian bond market and reaffirms the value that this asset class brings to a diversified global portfolio. This landmark development highlights India's growing importance in the global financial landscape and sets the stage for increased international investment in Indian debt securities.

Author:

Thakur Ajit Singh

Quick Turtle | Graded Financial Services | AskCred.

Management Consultant | Trainer 


Tuesday, January 23, 2024

The Diamond – A Timeless Asset in Portfolio

 


The Diamond – A Timeless Asset in Portfolio

The sentiment of diamonds being considered "investment pieces"; seldom echoes through occasions like engagement rings, Van Cleef necklaces, or milestone gifts such as a Cartier Love bracelet. While these acquisitions may seem exclusive to the privileged, their allure extends to all as timeless, cross-generational, family heirlooms that endure the test of time. Beyond sentimental value, investing in diamonds deserves recognition as a crucial element in marking life's significant milestones.

A seemingly modest 2 or 3-gram high-quality diamond can hold a value equivalent to 100 kilos of gold. This remarkable combination of value and portability positions diamonds as a potential form of emergency funding. Throughout history, populations displaced by war or extreme upheavals have successfully utilized diamonds as a portable and reliable asset in times of crisis.

Diamond Producers:

Diamonds are distributed across more than 35 countries globally. The primary contributors to diamond production are Africa and Russia, which collectively account for a significant share of the world's diamond output. Africa, in particular, is home to numerous diamond mines and plays a central role in the global diamond industry.

Canada and Australia are also significant players in the diamond production landscape. Both countries have made substantial contributions to the global diamond market, with mining operations that yield high-quality diamonds. Canada, in particular, has become renowned for its ethically sourced diamonds and is a key player in the industry. Regions in the Americas are also actively involved in diamond production. Brazil, in particular, has emerged as a smaller but noteworthy source of diamonds.

Diamond Characteristics:

Diamond, a solid form of carbon, exhibits a crystal structure known as diamond cubic, endowing it with the highest hardness and thermal conductivity among natural materials. The extreme rigidity of the diamond's atomic arrangement  exposes it to contamination by few types of impurities, with exceptions like boron and nitrogen. Infrequent defects or impurities, occurring at about one per million lattice atoms, impart colors such as Blue (Boron), Yellow (Nitrogen), Brown (Defects), Green (radiation exposure), Purple, Pink, Orange, or Red. Additionally, diamond boasts a remarkably high refractive index and relatively high optical dispersion, contributing to its unique and captivating visual properties.

Classification of Diamonds:

Diamonds can be broadly classified into two main categories: (1) Natural Diamonds and (2) Synthetic Diamonds.

Natural diamonds are those formed through natural processes or events. The majority of natural diamonds boast ages ranging from 1 billion to 3.5 billion years, originating at depths between 150 and 250 kilometers (93 and 155 miles) within the Earth's mantle.

On the other hand, Synthetic diamonds can be cultivated either from high-purity carbon under high pressures and temperatures or from hydrocarbon gases through chemical vapor deposition (CVD).

Additionally, Imitation diamonds can be crafted from materials such as cubic zirconia and silicon carbide.

Distinguishing between natural, synthetic, and imitation diamonds is commonly achieved through optical techniques or measurements of thermal conductivity. This classification not only highlights the diverse origins of diamonds but also underscores the importance of accurate identification in the diamond market.

The 4Cs of Diamonds:

Diamonds are assessed based on four key criteria, commonly known as the 4Cs, which play a pivotal role in determining their quality and price: Carat, Color, Clarity, and Cut.

Carat: Carat measures the weight of the diamond, with one carat equivalent to 0.2 grams. This metric is integral to the overall value of the diamond, influencing its price and highlighting its rarity. It's crucial to note that carat weight is distinct from diamond size, as different gem materials can have varying densities.

Color: The color of a diamond indicates whether it is naturally clear or exhibits a different color. Generally, the rarer the color, the higher the diamond's value.

Clarity: Clarity refers to any imperfections that may detract from the visual appeal of the diamond. Blemishes and inclusions are factors that reduce a diamond's clarity score.

Cut: Cut refers to the style or design used in shaping a diamond and encompasses symmetry, proportioning, and polish. Each diamond is unique, making them exceptional investment assets. The cut, with its unique facets, influences how much the diamond sparkles or reflects light, consequently impacting its price. To assess quality, diamonds are evaluated based on symmetry, polish, brilliance, and fire, categorized as poor, fair, good, very good, and excellent. Poorly cut diamonds may appear dull, significantly decreasing their value.

Diamonds possess high value density, allowing for easy transportation at a fraction of the cost of precious metals. The diamonds within a Diamond Standard Bar and Coin, for instance, are valued at around $1 million per ounce. However, value density varies among diamonds; for instance, a 1-carat Red diamond may be more value-dense than a 1-carat White diamond due to the rarity of Red diamonds. Diamond Standard's efforts to standardize diamond commodities enable investors to bridge the value gap by acquiring fungible Coins and Bars. This standardization helps eliminate disparities in diamond value, providing a more equitable investment platform.

An Underallocated Investment with Pent-Up Demand:

Investors currently maintain a significant presence in various precious metal markets, with substantial allocations of approximately 30% in the gold market, 19% in the silver market, 17% in the platinum market, and 15% in the palladium market. In stark contrast, the diamond market remains notably underallocated to investors, constituting only around 1% of their portfolios.

The underwhelming investment in diamonds, despite their well-established reputation as one of the most sought-after and valuable precious resources, becomes particularly perplexing when considering the substantial allocations in other precious metals. The lack of awareness regarding standardization issues further complicates this scenario, making it challenging for investors to tap into the diamond market. Each diamond's unique characteristics and individual price tags, in the absence of standardization, create a hazy path to liquidity.

The absence of a streamlined market structure  has hindered diamond price discovery and transparency, deterring potential investors from entering the market. Efforts to establish organized exchanges and market standards could potentially unlock the pent-up demand for diamonds and bring about a more robust and accessible investment avenue.

An Uncorrelated Asset for Portfolio Diversification:

Diversification stands as a cornerstone for risk mitigation within any investor's portfolio. By holding assets with low correlations, investors can effectively reduce portfolio risk. The correlation between two assets directly influences the resulting portfolio volatility, making it essential for savvy investors to maintain a diverse mix of assets with low or negative correlations. This strategic approach maximizes returns for a given level of non-diversifiable or systematic risk.

Diamonds emerge as a unique and uncorrelated asset class, exhibiting low correlations relative to multiple other asset classes. This characteristic suggests that diamond prices are influenced by independent drivers different from those affecting more frequently traded assets. The potential benefits of adding diamonds to a diversified portfolio become evident in the lower volatility they may contribute, given their distinct market dynamics.

However, it is important to note that the correlation of diamonds may experience changes, particularly with an anticipated increase in investor holdings. The advent of standardized and regulated diamond investments, coupled with a growing acceptance of diamonds as an asset class, could lead to an increase in correlation. Investments tied to diamonds, such as commodities, futures, options, private funds, exchange-traded funds, and commodity indices, may link a portion of their market price performance to overall demand for assets and securities. Consequently, heightened periods of market volatility could contribute to an increase in correlations between diamond investments and other assets.

Among the various diamond indices, the 1.0 carat mixed diamond index has shown the most effective risk-reducing performance. The construction of these indices considered different weights (0.3, 0.5, and 1.0 carats) and quality classifications (fine, commercial, and mixed) to reflect the diverse grades and applications of diamonds within each class. Investment-grade diamonds are further categorized into three size groups (0.3, 0.5, and 1.0 carats) and then classified by color and clarity.

Only colorless or near-colorless diamonds (grades E, F, and G) and specific clarity grades (VVS1, VVS2, and VS1) were used for these indices, with the rarity of apex clarity grades (FL and IF) and color grade D warranting a separate grouping. This meticulous categorization ensures a nuanced approach to including diamonds in investment portfolios, recognizing their potential as an uncorrelated asset for effective diversification.

High Price Volatility of Rough Diamonds:

The global financial crisis marked a period where rough diamond prices experienced significant volatility. Despite sustained consumer demand for polished diamonds, rough diamond prices plummeted by 50% as retailers, wholesalers, and manufacturers opted to sell down existing inventory rather than risk replenishment in an uncertain market.

Interestingly, 18 months later, rough diamond prices more than doubled, surpassing pre-crisis levels, driven by the industry's rush to restock in response to continued consumer demand. The expectation is that such pronounced volatility will persist, offering attractive trading opportunities for qualified investors who can navigate the market's fluctuations.

Single Stone Investment:

In a broader analysis, Low, Yao, and Faff (2015) identified 1.0 carat flawless diamonds as a strong hedge and a safe-haven asset. Notably, during the 2008 global financial crisis, these diamonds experienced the least volatility, with 1.0 carat flawless diamonds even rising in price when financial markets collapsed. The authors concluded that physical diamonds demonstrated satisfactory performance during periods of market volatility and should be included in a portfolio for their downside hedging potential. Top-quality flawless diamonds exhibited a strong negative correlation with international equity markets, making them an attractive store of value that can provide price stability and potential appreciation during market turmoil.

Larger and rare stones, resembling the high-end art market, carry characteristics of infrequent trades and unique pricing determinants, resulting in greater variability in outcomes and risks. Despite this, larger stones offer store-of-value characteristics and diversification benefits. The introduction of standardized exchange trading methodology on the SDiX platform enhances the recognition of diamonds as a rising asset class.

Industrial Applications of Diamonds:

Diamonds, renowned for their beauty, are equally valued for their exceptional hardness, making them indispensable in various industrial applications. The abrasive industry extensively utilizes diamonds for cutting, drilling, and grinding rigid materials. The growth of the construction industry has further intensified the demand for industrial diamonds, playing a crucial role in cutting, drilling, polishing, and grinding materials like glass, concrete, and ceramics.

Challenges of Cost and Price Volatility:

Despite the growing demand, the diamond market grapples with challenges related to cost and price volatility. The high cost associated with diamond extraction and the inherent uncertainty in natural diamond prices have left a notable impact. However, the market has seen a surge in lab-grown synthetic diamonds, offering a more cost-effective alternative. Price fluctuations in the diamond industry are influenced by factors such as consumer perception, rough diamond production, currency fluctuations, and evolving consumer buying patterns.

Cost of Carry:

The cost of carry for diamonds is defined as the expenses associated with storing a physical commodity or holding a financial instrument over time, is notably favorable. Carrying charges include insurance, storage costs, interest charges on borrowed funds, and related expenses.

Unlike traditional commodities such as oil and metals, diamonds have a fraction of the cost of carry due to their size and handling process. This advantageous cost structure, coupled with ease of storage and transport, distinguishes diamonds from bulkier commodities and adds to their appeal as an investment.

Future of Diamond Industry:

Continuing the trend of the past decade, the future demand for gem diamonds is anticipated to surpass global supply, leading to potential price increases. Existing mines, having surpassed their peak capacity levels, are facing increased production costs as they transition from open-pit to underground mining, and navigate stricter environmental regulations. The industry consensus is that no major new mines will be developed and operational in the medium term, given the considerable lead time of 7 to 10 years required to open a new diamond mine.

On the demand side, the United States maintains its position as the largest retail market for polished diamonds. Notably, China and India have surpassed Japan in recent years, with China emerging as the second-largest market for polished wholesale diamonds. The rapid expansion of retail jewelry stores in China underscores its growing significance in the global diamond market.

In the context of broader market dynamics, investors have witnessed volatility not only in listed stocks but also, in tradable forms of precious metals and commodities traditionally considered safe havens, especially following the last recession. In response to this, investors are increasingly seeking attractive, tangible assets characterized by low volatility and low correlation to other major asset classes, offering potential inflation hedging benefits. The heightened investor sensitivity to valuation characteristics has fueled a growing appetite for assets such as physical diamonds, where prices are fundamentally driven by real supply and demand dynamics. This shift reflects a strategic move towards assets perceived as more stable and grounded in tangible market fundamentals.

Conclusion:

The diamond market has witnessed significant developments, including the introduction of blockchain-backed diamond source platforms by major players like the De Beers Group. This technology ensures tamper-proof source assurance, enhancing transparency and traceability in the diamond supply chain.

Looking ahead, the diamond market is poised for steady growth. Factors such as increasing demand from millennials, expanding industrial applications, and technological advancements are expected to drive market growth. However, challenges related to cost and price volatility persist.

In the realm of investments, the polished diamond industry continues to evolve with a focus on increasing transparency, particularly as wealth accumulates in emerging markets. Diamonds, as precious commodities, serve as a store of value and a hedge against inflation. Currently representing only 3% of annual production, diamonds as investments have substantial upside potential in comparison to gold (40%) and silver (20%). The inherent rarity of diamonds further enhances their attractiveness as investments and valuable additions to diversified portfolios.


Author

Thakur Ajit Singh
Founder - Quick Turtle | Graded Financial Services | AskCred
Financial Expert | Trainer | Management & Placement Consultant
Cell: 8169810833


Friday, October 27, 2023

 



Investor Caution Amidst Geopolitical Tensions

Investors in the Indian Stock Market are treading cautiously as uncertainty looms due to the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict. The potential for a full-fledged war in West Asia, with the involvement of multiple countries, has created unease in the market. Worries about a deepening crisis in the Middle East have driven oil benchmark Brent to remain above $88, offsetting concerns about the economic outlook in Europe.

Additionally, global investors are apprehensive about the possibility of higher interest rates worldwide. The recent rise in S&P Global's flash US Composite Purchasing Managers Index, the highest since July, may provide the US Federal Reserve with more leeway to maintain high interest rates; this could potentially impede future economic growth.

Mid and small-cap stocks have not been immune to the market's fluctuations, suffering significant losses. The overall market capitalization (mcap) of BSE-listed firms dropped to approximately ₹309.2 lakh crore from ₹323.8 lakh crore on October 17, resulting in investors' wealth diminishing by about ₹14.6 lakh crore over the course of five sessions.

However, in a surprising turn of events, the NSE Nifty and Sensex rebounded after a bearish streak lasting six days. BSE Sensex gained 1.01% (634.65 points) to close at 63,782.80 points, while Nifty surged 1.07% (202.45 points) to close above the benchmark 19,000 points level at 19,059.70 points. The rebound was led by sectors such as auto, IT, financial, and energy, primarily driven by better-than-expected Q2 financial results. Despite uncertain geopolitical situations in the Middle East, investor sentiment was boosted by these positive earnings reports. Notably, Asian Paints, Ultratech Cement, and ITC were the laggards, while HCL Tech, Coal India, and SBI emerged as the top gainers.

Author

Thakur Ajit Singh

Founder - Graded Financial Services | Quick Turtle | AskCred
Financial Expert | Trainer | Management & Placement Consultant
Cell: 8169810833

 



Saturday, August 26, 2023

The White Metal: PLATINUM

 

The White Metal: PLATINUM

Investors are well-acquainted with the allure of gold as a store of value, but there's another precious metal that often goes overlooked—platinum. Often described as "The White Metal," platinum is an extraordinary asset with unique investment potential. It's not only thirty times rarer than gold but also boasts compelling supply and demand dynamics that set it apart as a lucrative investment option.

Investment Merits of Platinum:-

Historically, precious metals have been an essential component of diversified portfolios, serving as both safe-haven assets and hedges against inflation. While gold is the traditional favorite in this category, platinum presents a compelling alternative. It has been proven to enhance the effectiveness of precious metal allocations in portfolios by offering long-term diversification benefits.

Remarkably, even a modest inclusion of platinum, as low as 5%, in a gold-focused portfolio over the three decades would yield superior risk-adjusted returns. The unique characteristics of platinum make it an invaluable addition to an investment portfolio.

Platinum's Unique Qualities:-

Platinum's distinctive physical properties set it apart from other precious metals. This dense, malleable, and ductile metal can be fashioned into intricate shapes without losing its durability. To put its remarkable malleability in perspective, one gram of platinum can be stretched into a wire over a mile long. At the same time, it weighs much heavier; a six-inch cube of platinum weighs as much as an average human being.

Platinum Demand:-

Approximately 75% of the world's platinum is mined in South Africa, with Russia being the second-largest producer. Canada, the U.S., and Zimbabwe also contribute to global platinum production, albeit in smaller quantities. Interestingly, platinum is often a by-product of nickel mining, making its supply even scarcer in comparison to gold.

Platinum's demand emanates from four key sectors:

  1. Automotive: Platinum plays a crucial role in controlling harmful vehicle emissions through catalytic converters. Emerging market demand for automobiles, coupled with stricter global emission standards, ensures robust growth potential in this sector.
  2.  Industrial: Platinum has a broad spectrum of industrial applications, from biomedical devices to glass fiber and jet engine blade manufacturing. Its growth is intrinsically tied to global economic development.
  3. Jewelry: Platinum has firmly established itself as the premier jewelry metal, with significant demand in regions like India and China.
  4. Investment: Investment avenues for platinum include ETFs, accumulation plans, and physical bullion like bars and coins. Notably, the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) actively promotes platinum as an investment asset, enhancing market efficiency and expanding distribution channels.

 

Factors Affecting Platinum Prices:-

Several factors influence platinum prices, including:

  1. Diesel: The decline in diesel car demand impacts platinum due to its use in catalytic converters for diesel engines.
  2. Trade Wars: Trade disputes can disrupt industrial demand for platinum, affecting its price.
  3. Hydrogen Technology: Growing investments in hydrogen fuel cells, which require platinum, can boost demand.
  4.  South African Issues: The precarious state of South African platinum mines can reduce supply, potentially raising prices.
  5. Scarcity: Platinum's rarity, even compared to gold, suggests a long-term upward price trend.

 

How to Invest in Platinum:-

There are various ways to invest in platinum globally:

  1. Physical Bullion and Coins: Investors can purchase platinum bullion and coins through banks and authorized dealers, ensuring high purity and quality.
  2.  Futures Trading: Platinum futures contracts are available on commodity exchanges for more active traders, but they entail higher risk.

The Future of Platinum:-

Given its current price, investment potential, and diverse industrial applications, platinum presents an attractive opportunity. Recent years have witnessed platinum becoming more affordable relative to other precious metals, making it increasingly popular. The emerging trend of platinum jewelry in the West is likely to drive its demand even higher, including in India.

As platinum's price remains below historical averages, many investors are recognizing its value. With its scarcity and versatile utility, platinum could potentially shine even brighter in the world of investments.


Author

Ajit Singh

Founder

Graded Financial Services | Quick Turtle | AskCred

Management Consultant | Trainer

 

 


Saturday, August 19, 2023

Gold: A Timeless Treasure

 


Gold: A Timeless Treasure

Few elements have captivated the human imagination as gold has. In ancient Egypt, it was revered as divine and indestructible, believed to be a physical embodiment of the Sun itself.

Long before the advent of modern currencies like the dollar, euro, yen, or peso, gold reigned supreme as the world's de facto currency. The first gold coins were minted in 550 B.C.E., and well into the 20th century, modern paper currencies were backed by the "gold standard."

Even today, gold retains its allure as the ultimate "safe haven" commodity. It is tangible and resilient, retaining its value when compared to "paper" investments like cash, stocks, and bonds.

How Much Gold Remains?

According to the US Geological Survey, underground gold reserves are currently estimated at around 50,000 tons. While this figure is subject to variation, it suggests that approximately 20% of the world's gold remains to be mined, a process that could take up to two decades.

Nonetheless, the depletion of easily accessible gold reserves doesn't necessarily spell the end of gold mining. Ongoing research and the introduction of new technologies may open up previously untapped resources, although mining costs may rise significantly. Should gold become scarcer, its market price could skyrocket.

The following countries boast significant gold reserves:

Australia: 10,000 tonnes (19% of the total)

Russia: 7,500 tonnes (14%)

U.S.: 3,000 tonnes (6%)

Peru: 2,700 tonnes (5%)

South Africa: 2,700 tonnes (5%)

Rest of the World: 27,100 tonnes (51%)

These reserves not only dictate current production but also hint at future potential mining locations.

 

Prospects for Future Gold Mining:

Surprisingly, the sea contains approximately 20 million tonnes of gold. However, the challenge lies in the fact that gold is incredibly dilute in seawater, with just billionths of a gram in an average liter. Extracting this gold from the sea remains a formidable task.

On land, experts estimate that the top four kilometers of Earth's crust contain as much as 122 billion metric tons of gold, not accounting for what lies beneath the oceans. If new technologies allow for the profitable extraction of gold at lower concentrations, the world may possess more gold than initially thought.

Beyond Earth, asteroids in the Asteroid Belt could potentially contain substantial amounts of gold in their cores, though the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of extracting this gold remain distant prospects.

 

Who Holds Gold?

Gold is coveted by investors worldwide for its ability to preserve value, particularly during times of high inflation. Investment accounts for a significant portion of gold's use, with over 44,000 tonnes held as bars, coins, or bullion in gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Central banks are also major gold holders. Unlike other assets like foreign currencies or equities, gold's value depends on supply and demand dynamics. Therefore, central banks often use gold to diversify their assets and safeguard against fiat currency depreciation. As of 2021, central banks held more than 35,000 tonnes of gold, accounting for nearly one-fifth of all above-ground gold.

Gold isn't just a financial asset; it plays a crucial role in various industries, including electronics, dentistry, and space exploration. For example, a typical iPhone contains around 0.034 grams of gold, along with other precious metals. These industrial applications make up approximately 15% of all above-ground gold.

A Golden Future

Gold has stood the test of time, and it's likely to do so in the future due to its indestructible nature. This enduring quality, coupled with its rarity and inability to be artificially produced in large quantities, makes gold a valuable and essential investment.

With growing concerns about money supply expansion and inflation, gold will continue to deliver value and offer a safe haven for investors during times of volatility. It remains a reliable means of preserving wealth for the long term.

 

Author:

Thakur Ajit Singh
Founder - Quick Turtle | Graded Financial Services | AskCred
Financial Expert | Trainer | Management & Placement Consultant
Cell: 8169810833


Saturday, July 29, 2023

BULLS – Won’t Tire: Indian Equities Set to Shine in 2023.

 




BULLS – Won’t Tire: Indian Equities Set to Shine in 2023.

Indian equities have emerged as one of the top-performing markets in 2023, joining the league of the best. The weakness in the US dollar has once again made Indian and other emerging equity markets highly attractive to foreign institutional investors. Furthermore, amid fears of an economic recession in the US and sluggish demand in China, FIIs are increasingly favoring the Indian equity market over China.

The bulls have tightened their grip on the domestic stock markets, propelling benchmark equity indices to reach new heights in July 2023, marking a successful beginning to the Q1FY24 earnings season. On July 18, the benchmark BSE Sensex achieved an unprecedented intra-day peak, surpassing the 67,000 mark, driven by a surge in FII inflows. The Nifty 50 also rallied and crossed the 19,800 mark. This bullish sentiment was further bolstered by robust financial results from IT majors like TCS and HCL Technologies, acting as booster shots for the market.

Looking ahead, Nifty earnings are expected to remain robust in Q1FY24, with significant contributions from sectors like BFSI, automotive, and OMCs. Additionally, macroeconomic factors are favorably positioned, including increased credit off-take, declining energy prices, promising industrial activity, and diminishing recessionary fears. Moreover, the global rate hike cycle is expected to plateau, which should bode well for Indian markets.

India Inc. is currently delivering impressive profits, and FII investments are flowing back to Indian shores. Furthermore, the government's focus on infrastructure development presents enticing opportunities for companies operating in this space, potentially driving their stock prices higher. Additionally, the year 2023 is anticipated to witness numerous companies going public to fund their growth plans, injecting excitement into the market.

Considering these factors, we expect the bull run to sustain throughout the entirety of 2023, and the Sensex may even surpass market expectations, reaching the 75,000 mark. However, caution and attentiveness in the market should be the key to investing.

 

Author: Ajit Singh

Founder

Quick Turtle Graded Financial Services AskCred.

Management Consultant | Trainer 

 

 

 

Tuesday, February 21, 2023

Performance of Indian Stock Market since the year 2020 with Outlook for 2023

 


Performance of Indian Stock Market since the year 2020 with Outlook for 2023

Equity markets have faced credible challenges since the year 2022 due to Covid, geo-political strife, high inflation, and sequential rise in interest rates.

In March 2020, due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent lockdowns, the Indian stock market experienced an epic fall where the BSE Sensex index nosedived from around 41,000 to around 26,000 in a matter of few weeks.

However, the market recovered gradually and the Sensex crossed the 50,000 mark for the first time in January 2021. The rising trend continued with the Sensex hitting its all-time high of 63583.07 in September 2021.

It’s been said that, ‘in the Stock Market - be brave when others are coward, and be coward when others are brave’. With that logic, those who invested in the equity market when the Sensex fell to the level of 26000, and stayed put till the Sensex breached 60000 points; would have surely gained tremendously.

However, since September 2021, the market has been volatile with the Sensex fluctuating between 55,000 and 60,000, on account of – the fear of Covid return, the chances of intensifying Russia -Ukraine war (which would be completing 1-year), the weakness of Rupee, global supply chain challenges, and the staggering inflation.

The year 2022 had been marred by a series of challenging phenomena including inflation, successive rise in Interest Rates; resulting in massive sell-off by FPIs in favor of investing in safe fixed-income securities, headwinds in China both on account of the country’s zero Covid-tolerance policy and political tension with Taiwan—all of which have led to tighter financial conditions and weakened economic activity across the world.

The year 2023:

Macroeconomic indicators like direct tax collection, consumer price-based inflation, industrial index, GST mop-up, and core sector are strong in comparison to developed economies and emerging markets.

At the same time, the headwinds Indian investors need to watch in 2023 are - the expanding trade deficit, the persistent outflow of foreign institutional investors, the weakening of Indian currency, and the drying up of liquidity. However, thanks to huge domestic consumption, backed by the quantum of retail participation (total Demat accounts are 10.6 Cr) Indian markets would be more resilient to the challenges in play.

The majority of the experts think consumer sentiment will see an uptick in 2023 and the Indian stock markets performance would be better in the sectors like banking, automobiles, real estate, and company stocks with strong fundamentals.

Contributions to mutual fund schemes through systematic investment plans (SIPs) remain unfazed by the market volatility in 2022 with inflow growing to ₹1.5 lakh crore in 2022, a surge of 31 percent from a year earlier, due to higher retail participation. Therefore, the way forward for passive Retail Investors should be to invest 50% of their investible surplus in the equity market through systematic investment plans (SIPs) of mutual funds, with a horizon of 3-5 years in mind.

The balance 50% of investors’ portfolio should be built through investing in Fixed Income Securities viz. Company Fixed Deposits, Bonds, and NCDs, which are offering very attractive returns in the rising interest rates scenario. However, care must be taken to invest only in AAA-rated instruments.

 

Author

Ajit Singh

Founder

Quick Turtle Graded Financial Services AskCred.

Management Consultant | Trainer 

 

 

Sunday, August 28, 2022

Outlook of Debt Market for 2nd half of the Year 2022

 


Outlook of Debt Market for 2nd half of the Year 2022

We would begin the topic by covering basic concepts relevant to the readers for a better understanding of this article.

Sometimes, banks may need liquidity to take care of an unprecedented spurt in the withdrawal of funds by their account holders, or to maintain the prescribed limit of the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) and Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR). In such situations, banks may have to take loans from RBI by keeping Government Securities (G-Secs) as collateral. At the end of the loan term i.e. either overnight or 7 days, the bank repurchases the Government Securities from RBI by repaying the loan amount along with a pre-decided interest rate called Repo Rate – which is the interest rate at which the RBI lends money to the banks. In case, the bank defaults in paying the borrowed money back to the RBI, the latter sells the G-Secs that were kept as collateral.

Regulating the Repo rate is one of the tools available with RBI to regulate inflation (called Hawkish monitory policy) and growth in the economy (called Dovish monitory policy).

Consider a situation where the economy is facing high inflation; the RBI will keep increasing the Repo rate with an objective to curtail part of available liquidity in the hands of consumers. 

With the increase in the Repo rate; banks have to pay more interest to borrow money from RBI. Banks in turn would raise the lending rate on the loans given to their borrowers. This move, leaves consumers with less money thus, reducing their purchasing power, leading to a decrease in the demand for goods and services - making them cheaper; eventually cooling down the inflation.


The rationale behind RBI’s decision to increase Repo Rate: Based on the assessment of the economic situation, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the RBI, decided to increase the policy repo rate under the Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF). The decision to tame the inflation was made in light of growing inflation, the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia, high crude prices, and global commodity shortages. Besides, US Federal Reserve increased interest rates by 50 basis points to 0.75%-1% in the May 2022 meeting, thus impacting the markets across the globe.

The RBI wants to keep inflation under control, which is already close to 7%, as well as manage and monitor money flow into the banking sector. Therefore, RBI may continue to further hike Repo rates to reach the level of 6 to 6.50% by March 2023.

 

Effect of rising Repo Rate on Fixed Deposit:  The rate hike is welcomed by the deposit holders of banks and corporates, as fixed deposits have become an attractive option to invest with surges in interest rates.

 

Effect of rising Repo Rate on Debt Mutual Funds: Assume that a 10-year Government bond was issued at a face value of Rs. 100 at 8% interest (coupon) rate, which implies the yield in this bond is Rs. 8/-

If the Repo rate increases and the lending rate is increased to for example 10%, that would mean that the yield for the new bond issued will be Rs. 10 /-. This will reduce the demand for the 8% bond since the 10% coupon rate promises better returns.

Therefore, to make the former more attractive, the face value of the bond will be decreased to, say, Rs. 90/-. So, the yield for this bond now becomes 8.89% (8/90*100), which is higher than the original- making it more attractive.

Hence, an increase in interest rate is directly proportional to the yield and inversely proportional to the face value. This means that the Bond prices are inversely correlated to yield.  When interest rates and the yield goes up, bond prices decline (and vice-versa) resulting in mark-to-market losses for debt mutual funds.

After the RBI's announcement, the 10-year bond yield, which had been steadily rising in recent months, inched up to 7.40%. As a result, the net asset value (NAV) of debt mutual funds has fallen sharply, particularly for medium and long-duration funds. An increase in interest rates will have a negative impact on debt funds with a longer duration.

Conversely, a decrease in the Repo rate may make the debt schemes more attractive as it may increase the NAV of the debt schemes. The margin of gain will depend on the average maturity and the securities the scheme holds.

Effect of rising Repo Rate on Equity Market:  The Equity market typically goes down with the RBI's policy rate hike.  When there is plenty of liquidity, the equity market does well. If the RBI tightens the interest rates, the stock market is adversely impacted. Following the RBI's action, banks tend to raise their lending rates, thus making loans more expensive. As a result, companies will have to pay a higher interest rate to borrow money, indirectly impacting their liquidity position, and leading to a decrease in equity fund returns.

What should an investor do?

 

Looking at the inflation of 7%, the terminal Repo rate should stand somewhere at 6-6.5%. Therefore, investing in Corporate Fixed Deposits (choose only AAA-rated CFDs) would offer a better interest rate over the bank fixed deposit.

Invest in debt mutual funds if you have a large investment portfolio. Debt mutual funds are taxed at 20% with indexation if you hold the money for more than three years. If you are investing for less than three years, they don’t have any tax advantages and are taxed like bank deposits at applicable income tax rates.

If you decide to invest for three years or more, look at investing in the Corporate bond funds, and Banking & PSU funds. Also, investing in the Target Maturity Funds (TMFs) is a good option, as you need not worry if held until maturity, as are locked in at the yield at the time of investing.

 

Note on TMFs: These are passive debt funds that track an underlying bond index. Thus, the portfolio of such funds comprises bonds that are part of the underlying bond index, and these bonds have maturities in-line with the fund’s stated maturity. The bonds in the portfolio are held to maturity and all interest payments received during the holding period are reinvested in the fund. Thus, Target Maturity bond funds operate in an accrual mode like FMPs. However, unlike FMPs, TMFs are open-ended in nature and are offered either as target maturity debt index funds or target maturity bond ETFs. Thus, TMFs offer greater liquidity than FMPs.

TMFs are currently mandated to invest in government securities, PSU bonds, and SDLs (State Development Loans), thus, carrying lower default risk compared to other debt funds.

 

Author

Ajit Singh

Founder

Graded Financial Services | Quick Turtle | AskCred

Email: ajit@gradedfinancialservices.com