The Silver Landscape 2026: Fundamentals, Forecasts ,Future .

 

1. Global Silver Mining: Leading Countries:

Top Silver Producing Countries (mine output) globally include:

Rank	Country	Approx. Output (Million oz / metric tons)	Global %
1	Mexico	~202.2 Moz (~6,300 t)	~24%
2	China	~109.3 Moz (~3,300 t)	~13%
3	Peru	~107.1 Moz (~3,100 t)	~13%
4	Chile	~~52 Moz (~1,400 t)	~6%
5	Bolivia	~~42.6 Moz (~1,300 t)	~5%
6	Poland	~~42.5 Moz (~1,300 t)	~5%
7	Russia	~39.8 Moz (~1,200 t)	~5%
8	Australia	~34.4 Moz (~1,000 t)	~4%
9	United States	~~32 Moz (~1,100 t)	~4%
10	Argentina / Others	~~26 Moz (~800 t)	~3–4%

(Figures approximate: based on the 2024–2025 data sets).

2. Silver Reserves and Extraction Potential:

Global Reserves (Estimated) : According to global geological data, the world’s identified silver reserves are roughly ~640,000 tonnes.

Key nations by reserve size include:

Country	Approx. Silver Reserves (tonnes)
Peru	~140,000
Australia	~94,000
Russia	~92,000
China	~70,000
Poland	~61,000
Mexico	~37,000
United States	~23,000
India	~8,000
Others	~57,000 collectively

 

Reserve Notes:

§  Reserves indicate economically recoverable deposits under current conditions; actual resources (including speculative deposits) are higher.

§  Silver is often found with other metal ores, so reserve figures may grow with new discoveries.

Ease of Extraction: Silver extraction is technically complex because:

• Silver seldom occurs in pure form. It’s usually bound with other minerals (lead, zinc, copper), requiring pyrometallurgical or hydrometallurgical processing.
• Mining costs depend on ore grade, depth, energy cost, and environmental compliance. Lower ore grades make extraction more expensive.
• Technological advances (like heap leaching, flotation, and solvent extraction) help improve recovery rates but require capital investments.

3. Uses of Silver:

Silver’s demand is spread across multiple sectors:

a)     a) Industrial Uses: Silver’s unique physical properties make it irreplaceable in:

• Electronics & electrical contacts (high conductivity)
• Photovoltaic (solar) cells
• Automotive sensors and EV components
• Medical applications (antimicrobial coatings, surgical tools)
• Water purification and chemical catalysts

b)      b) Jewellery & Silverware: Silver jewellery and tableware remain significant, especially in India and other Asian markets.

c)    c) Investment Use: Silver bullion (coins, bars), ETFs, and industrial stocks are widely used for diversification.

 

4. Production & Supply Trends:

a) Production Trends: Recent analysis indicates:

• Global silver mine production was around ~830–840 million ounces (~25,000–26,000 t) in 2025.
• Primary silver output has been declining slowly since its peak around 2016 due to falling ore grades and underinvestment in exploration.

b) Supply Dynamics:

• About 70% of silver comes as a by-product; thus, silver output is tied to base metal (copper, lead, zinc) mining cycles.
• Recycling of silver from scrap is increasing, partially offsetting mine supply gaps.

 

5. Silver Price & Market Outlook:

a) Recent Price Behaviour: Silver prices hit record levels in 2025–2026 due to strong demand and limited supply. Spot prices have exceeded 70 per ounce [ 35.274 Ounce = 1 kg Silver] at times.

b) Price Drivers:

b.1) Bullish Factors:

• Industrial demand growth (especially in solar, electronics, EVs)
• Persistent structural supply deficits (production < demand)
• Safe-haven investment demand in turbulent markets.

b.2) Cautionary Factors:

• Production constraints and capital costs may limit supply responses.
• Macroeconomic shifts (interest rates, currency strength) can impact precious metals prices.

b.3) Price Forecasts: Analysts for 2026 anticipate further upside potential, with some forecasts projecting continued price strength.

6. Future of Silver: Production & Demand Growth:

a) Demand Outlook:

• Industrial demand is expected to increase with continued adoption of green energy (solar PV) and electrification.
• Growth in electronics and medical applications also expands demand.

b) Production Forecast

• Without significant new discoveries or mine developments, annual silver production may remain flat to slightly declining in the short term.
• Recycling will play an increasingly important role.

c ) Long-Term Considerations:

• If global projects fail to replace depleting reserves, supply challenges could intensify.
• Demand growth could outpace supply, potentially supporting higher long-term prices.

d) Investment & Safe-Haven Flows: With economic uncertainties (rate shifts, geopolitical risk), investors often turn to precious metals. Silver benefits because it’s both a safe-haven metal and an industrial metal.

e) Monetary Trends:  If major central banks ease policy or further cut interest rates in 2026, this could weaken the U.S. dollar and tilt funds toward real assets like silver—boosting prices further.

7. Key Takeaways:

1. Mexico, China, and Peru dominate silver production today.
2. Global reserves are concentrated in a few countries (Peru, Australia, Russia, China).
3. Extraction is complex and often tied to other metal mining.
4. Industrial demand is rising, especially in clean energy, electronics, and EVs.
5. Market prices have surged, driven by supply deficits and demand growth.
6. Future production growth may be limited without new discoveries and investment in mining.

7.     Silver is known to be more volatile than gold and other commodities. That means prices may swing widely throughout the year:

a)     Short-term pullbacks or consolidation phases could occur after strong rallies.

b)     Industrial demand slowdowns, shifts in monetary policy or shifting investment trends could temper or reverse price gains. 

Considering all the aspects,  Silver price appear to be rising all throughout CY 2026 as well. Therefore, it’s advisable to invest in Silver in tranches through either  Silver ETF FoF (Silver mutual funds are those that invest in units of silver exchange-traded funds or other silver-related assets)  or through Silver ETF.

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To Know More : Call On : 8169810833

Warm Rgds

Thakur Ajit Singh

Founder

Graded Financial Services - A Mall of Financial Products and Services,

Quick Turtle - An Executive Placement firm,

Chairman, Investor & Consumer Protection, MRCC,

Trainer | Management Consultant 

India's Market Momentum 2026 ... By Thakur Ajit Singh

 https://gradedfinserv.blogspot.com/2025/11/indias-market-momentum-2026-by-thakur.html

India Equity Market Outlook

India's Market Momentum 2026

Executive Summary:-
The Indian stock market environment is becoming increasingly favourable for investors, supported by global currency trends, resilient domestic fundamentals, and sustained growth prospects.

Global Context: The U.S. Dollar and Global Liquidity:-
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against a basket of major currencies, is showing signs of weakness, down by around 8.2% year-to-date. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the U.S. dollar has been on a clear path of depreciation since January 2025.
However, against the Indian Rupee (INR), the dollar remains stronger than a year ago, though it has recently shown signs of stabilization or mild weakening ; a positive sign for the rupee.

Historical Context:
- Periods of USD weakness (e.g., 2003–2007, 2010–2012, and mid-2020 to early 2021) have coincided with strong FII inflows and bull runs in Indian equities. 
- Conversely, USD strength (2013 “Taper Tantrum,” 2018, 2022–2023) led to capital outflows and rupee depreciation.

Implication:
A softening dollar typically leads to rising FII inflows, a strengthening rupee, and higher stock market valuations - especially in sectors like banking, consumption, and infrastructure.

Additionally, the U.S. faces significant fiscal challenges, with national debt exceeding USD 37.8 trillion, and record-high interest payments, creating a conducive backdrop for emerging market flows.

 India: Domestic Strengths and Economic Momentum:-

1. GST Collection:   Record high in April 2025 at ₹2.37 lakh crore, rising 9.1% YoY. 
  
2. Corporate Earnings:  Expected to grow up to 14-16% in FY26–27, with 10%

growth in Q4 FY25.

3. Inflation: Headline inflation eased to 1.54% in September 2025, indicating price stability.

4.Trade and Tariff Agreements:
   Ongoing and prospective agreements with the EU, UK, Canada, Australia, and likely the USA are expected to boost exports.

5. Capital Expenditure Revival:
   - Budgeted central government capex for FY26 is ₹11.21 lakh crore. 
   - Over FY20–FY25, capex grew at an average annual rate of 38.8%.

6. Consumption Drivers:
   Factors such as GST reforms, RBI rate cuts, above-average rainfall, tax rationalization, and the upcoming 8th Pay Commission are supporting demand.

7. GDP Outlook: 
   - IMF projects GDP growth at 6.4%. 
   - S&P Global and World Bank have upgraded their forecasts to 6.5%, while Fitch estimates 6.9% for FY26.

8. Sectoral Growth Opportunities:
   - Key sectors: Auto, FMCG, Defense, Semiconductors, Mobile Telephony, Financial Services, and Technology. 
   - Government initiatives under ‘Make in India’ continue to support domestic production and exports.

Investment Strategy: Positioning for Growth

As Indian equities appear poised for a new bull phase, investors are advised to adopt a structured and research-driven approach.

Recommended Strategy

1. Portfolio Audit: 
  Conduct a comprehensive audit of existing holdings and rebalance towards quality instruments - Mutual Funds, PMS, AIF, ETFs, Direct Equity, FDs/Bonds. Whichever are underperforming or less credible – can be sold.

2. Mutual Fund Allocation:
  Consider both lump-sum investments and SIPs in high-quality, diversified funds. Also invest in Gold / Silver through SIP Mode

3. Suggested Asset Allocation (Indicative):
   - 50% – Mutual Funds 
   - 15% – Direct Equity 
   - 15% – Silver & Gold (via ETFs / Mutual Funds) 
   - 20% – AAA / AA+ Rated Corporate FDs or Bonds 

Conclusion:
India stands out as one of the most promising markets globally in 2025–2026. The combination of macroeconomic stability, policy-driven growth, and favourable global liquidity conditions offers a fertile ground for long-term wealth creation. Strategic and disciplined participation in equities and related instruments can yield significant gains in the upcoming growth phase.

Thakur Ajit Singh 
Founder, Graded Financial Services  - A Mall of Financial Products & Services.
M/S Quick Turtle – Executive Placement & Training Company

 

SEBI Plans Endgame for Weekly Expiry in Derivatives | Profit Puzzle for NSE

SEBI Plans Endgame for Weekly Expiry in Derivatives

SEBI’s move to restrict or do away with weekly expiries in the F&O is about systemic risk management and investor protection. Here are the key reasons behind it:

1. Retail investor protection:

• Data shows that retail traders form a very large share of index option turnover (40%+ of participants in some segments).
• But the majority of them lose money in short-term speculative trades, especially in weekly options where time decay is rapid and volatility spikes near expiry.
• SEBI has publicly expressed concern that the “casino-like” weekly expiry trade is exposing small investors to outsized risk and losses.

2. Curbing excessive speculation:

• Weekly expiries encourage very short-term, lottery-like bets on Nifty/Bank Nifty movements.
• This builds huge intraday speculative volume, often disconnected from fundamentals.
• SEBI sees this as destabilising and wants to shift trading behaviour toward longer maturities (monthly/fortnightly), where speculation is less intense and more hedging-driven.

3. Systemic risk reduction:

• Huge weekly expiry positions concentrate liquidity and risk on one day of the week (the expiry day).
• This leads to sharp intraday swings, option mispricing, and can amplify volatility in the cash market as well.
• By standardising expiry cycles, SEBI aims to smoothen volumes and reduce expiry-day shocks.

4. Market structure stability:

• NSE and BSE have been competing by introducing multiple weekly expiries on different days (Nifty, Bank Nifty, Sensex, FinNifty etc.).
• This has led to overlapping expiries almost every day of the week, creating continuous “expiry-day” speculation.
• SEBI wants to end this “expiry-arbitrage game” between exchanges and bring back balance.

5. Global best practices

• Most mature markets (US, Europe) rely on monthly/quarterly expiries, with limited weekly products (only for liquid benchmarks and not across the board).
• India’s F&O market has become the world’s largest by contract volume, but SEBI worries that the composition is overly skewed toward ultra-short-term speculation rather than hedging/price discovery.

 

In short:
SEBI is acting to protect small investors, reduce market-wide speculative frenzy, and bring Indian F&O closer to global norms.

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The Profit Puzzle for NSE

It may have  material and negative for NSE’s near-term profits, but not existential.
Removing weekly expiries and moving to (mostly) monthly expiries will cut derivatives turnover (hence transaction-fee revenue) substantially;  how much depends on how fast traders adjust and how much volume weekly contracts currently account for.

Why this matters for NSE’s profitability:-

• NSE’s transaction/turnover charges are heavily driven by derivatives: in Q4 FY24 the exchange said ~88% of transaction charges came from equity derivatives (i.e., derivatives are the dominant source of trading fee revenue).
• Removal/curbs and regulatory actions have already cut volumes sharply,  for example, index-options premium turnover on NSE fell by ~35–36% over a short period after regulatory action against a large high-frequency player (Jane Street). That shows how sensitive volumes (and thus fees) can be to structural/regulatory changes.

Mechanism: how profit gets hit:-

1. Lower transaction fees (top line): Weekly expiries are popular with retail/speculative traders and account for a disproportionate share of daily contract volume. Moving to monthly expiries reduces trading frequency and the number of contracts traded, thus, directly lowering NSE’s transaction-fee income.
2. Operating leverage (bottom line): Exchanges have high fixed costs (technology, surveillance, clearing infrastructure). Revenue falls won’t be matched by immediate cost declines, so profits fall faster than revenue unless the exchange cuts costs or finds replacement revenues. Reuters / NSE commentary has repeatedly pointed to transaction charges as the major revenue driver.
3. Liquidity / market share effects: If traders concentrate on the single allowed weekly contract (or move activity to another exchange or instrument), liquidity may fragment. That can reduce order flow for some NSE products, reducing ancillary revenues (market data, clearing, connectivity).
4. Volatility / option premium effects: Lower short-dated trading may reduce intraday/near-term volatility and option-premium volume (less trading in short time-decay plays), hitting premium-related turnover. We’ve seen option premium turnover shrink in stressed episodes.

 

What NSE (and other exchanges) should do:

1.     Product substitution: Traders might move to monthly or longer-dated strategies (calendar spreads, LEAPS), or to cash market hedges;  some volumes will reappear elsewhere (but spread over fewer contracts and lower turnover).

2. Lobby / consult for a glide path: work with SEBI on phased implementation to smooth volume transition (SEBI has signalled glide-path ideas).
3. Product & fee engineering: tweak fee schedules, encourage monthly/quarterly product liquidity, and create new derivatives products that attract flow.
4. Expand non-transaction revenues: accelerate market-data commercialisation, indices licensing, cross-border services, and tech services to brokers.
5. Capture residual retail flow: offer simplified, regulated products (ETFs, structured products) that attract retail hedging/speculation in a safer way.

 

Bottom line :

Because derivatives transaction fees are the single largest driver of NSE’s transaction revenue, ending weekly expiries will very likely reduce trading volumes and therefore meaningfully depress NSE’s near-term revenue and profits (order of magnitude: think tens of percent of transaction revenue in a plausible base case). The precise hit depends on how much of today’s volume is truly “weekly-only” flow and how quickly the market — traders, market-makers and the exchange itself — adapts

 

Warm Rgds

Thakur Ajit Singh

Founder

Graded Financial Services - A Mall of Financial Products and Services,

Quick Turtle - An Executive Placement firm,

Chairman, Investor & Consumer Protection, MRCC,

Trainer | Management Consultant

Cell: 8169810833 

Building Resilience Against Stock Market Crashes ... By Thakur Ajit Singh

“Building Resilience Against Stock Market Crashes”

Market crashes don’t happen overnight; they are usually the result of multiple interacting factors. Speculation, geopolitical tensions, inflation, and weakening economic indicators often converge to trigger panic selling.

Some key indicators like GDP contraction, rising unemployment, and spikes in the Volatility Index (VIX) à can act as early warning signals of potential market instability. For investors, diversification across asset classes and maintaining a long-term perspective remain the most effective shields against volatility.

 

Historical Perspective on Market Crashes:-

1. Speculation:- Excessive speculation inflates asset prices far beyond their fundamentals. When these bubbles burst, markets experience sharp corrections.

Example: The dot-com bubble of 2000, when overvalued tech stocks collapsed, wiping out trillions in market value.

2. Geopolitical Tensions:- Wars, political instability, or trade conflicts create uncertainty, driving investors to exit risky assets.

Example: The Russia–Ukraine conflict in 2022 triggered surges in commodity prices, disrupted global supply chains, and rattled equity markets worldwide.

3. Economic Indicators:- Weakening macroeconomic signals -- slowing GDP growth, rising unemployment, or contracting manufacturing output --often precede market downturns.

Example: The 2008 global financial crisis followed a housing sector collapse and subprime mortgage defaults, revealing deep cracks in the financial system.

4. Technological Disruptions:- While innovation fuels growth, sudden disruptions can also trigger volatility.

Example: In 2024, Nvidia’s (NVDA) meteoric rise (178% gain) on AI-driven demand was followed by turbulence when competing models like DeepSeek reshaped the AI landscape.

Warning Signs:

A. Economic Indicators:-

1)   GDP Slowdown: A shrinking or stagnating GDP signals weaker economic activity.

2)   Rising Unemployment: Reduces consumer spending and corporate profitability.

3)   Yield Curve Inversion: When short-term bond yields exceed long-term yields, it has historically preceded recessions (as seen before 2000 and 2008 crashes).

B. Market Sentiment & Volatility

1)   Volatility Index (VIX): Known as the “fear gauge,” the VIX recently touched a 6-month high, reflecting heightened nervousness among investors.

2)   Investor Sentiment Extremes: Over-optimism (bubbles) or over-pessimism (panic) often foreshadow reversals.

3)   Liquidity Shifts: Declining liquidity can amplify price swings and hinder smooth trade execution.

 

Learning from the Past:

Looking at the 2000 dot-com crash, the 2008 subprime crisis, and the 2020 COVID-19 selloff, one trend is clear: markets eventually recover.

For example, the Nifty 50 in India has delivered an average CAGR of ~15.23% over the past 20 years, despite these downturns. Investors who stayed invested and continued systematic buying during crises benefited.

 

Securing Your Portfolio Against Future Market Drops:-

While predicting the exact timing of a crash is impossible, preparing for downturns is essential.

Strategies for 2025:

1. Diversify Across Asset Classes:

a)   Equities (via Mutual Fund SIPs): Ensure long-term wealth creation through from compounding and rupee cost averaging .

b)   Bonds & Corporate FDs: Offer stability and regular income.

c)   Precious Metals (Gold & Silver): Serve as a hedge against inflation and uncertainty.

2. Maintain a Long-Term View:
   Market cycles are inevitable. Long-term investors who focus on fundamentals rather than panic-driven decisions are better positioned to ride out volatility.

2. Use Market Corrections as Opportunities:
   Bear markets often provide attractive entry points for quality assets at discounted valuations.

Bottom Line:

Market crashes, though unsettling, are temporary phases in a much larger growth cycle. By diversifying smartly and staying invested with discipline, investors can turn downturns into long-term wealth-building opportunities.

Author:

Thakur Ajit Singh 

Founder 

Graded Financial Services – A Mall of Financial Products & Services,

Quick Turtle - An Executive Placement Firm,

Chairman, Investor & Consumer Protection Cell, MRCC.

Trainer | Management Consultant.

Cell: 8169810833